President Donald Trump’s independent voter support has collapsed during his second term, with multiple polling organizations documenting sharp declines across the board during the past 16 months.
Civiqs tracking data shows Trump’s net approval among independents dropped from -5 at the start of his term in January 2025 to -33 by June 2026—a 38-point swing. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted May 29 to June 1 found independents at -50 net approval, marking an all-time low for that series and a 46-point deterioration from early 2025 levels. Public Religion Research Institute data shows independent favorability fell from 35 percent in March 2025 to 25 percent by May 2026. An AP-NORC analysis aggregating 21 polls found independent support dropped from roughly 40 percent around the 2024 election to about one-quarter by spring 2026, according to Newsweek and AP News reporting.
The decline has been most pronounced among independents without a college degree, a group that once formed a core part of Trump’s coalition. Support among this demographic fell from 48 percent in the months before Trump returned to office to 31 percent during his first 100 days, then continued declining to about one-quarter by early 2026, according to the AP-NORC analysis. Hispanic independents saw approval drop from 46 percent around the election to as low as 15 percent during last fall’s government shutdown, settling around one-quarter in spring. Younger independents also grew less supportive, while those 60 and older remained relatively stable.
The erosion appears driven by two main concerns: the economy and the Iran war. About half of independents who backed Trump in 2024 cited inflation as their single most important voting factor, according to AP VoteCast. More than a year into his second term, inflation remains elevated due to gas prices that have stayed high as the Iran war continues. An AP-NORC poll from April found about three in ten independents were extremely or very concerned about affording groceries and gas. A New York Times/Siena poll found most voters think Trump made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran, according to reporting from May 2026. Only about three in ten independents approve of how Trump is handling the economy, with just 12 percent approving of his handling of the cost of living, according to April polling cited in the AP-NORC analysis.
Allen Houston, a YouGov analyst, told Newsweek that the current independent approval rating represents a record-low among independents for either of Trump’s terms. At a comparable point in Trump’s first term, independents were only slightly negative at -3 net approval. Houston noted that Trump’s current standing among independents now resembles how Democrats viewed him at the outset of his first term, when his net approval with that group stood at -54.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, emphasized that while Republican and Democratic views of Trump have remained stable during his second term, independents continue to shift. “Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” Torres said, according to Newsweek. Sean Collins, another NORC researcher, noted that the steeper decline among independents without college degrees was surprising given that this group typically forms a strong part of Trump’s coalition.
The timing of the decline matters for the 2026 midterm elections. About 42 percent of independent voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024, up from 37 percent in 2020, according to AP VoteCast. Any sustained erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans in the midterms, which are often seen as a reflection of how voters feel about the governing party. More Americans than ever consider themselves independents, and they are among the groups that shifted toward Trump in 2024. As independents are often decisive in close races, their movement away from the president could reshape outcomes in competitive House and Senate contests heading into the fall.
Sources
- Newsweek — Comprehensive polling analysis of four major datasets (Civiqs, Economist/YouGov, PRRI, AP-NORC) showing Trump’s approval collapse among independents; commentary from YouGov’s Allen Houston on historical significance of the decline
- AP News — AP-NORC analysis aggregating 21 polls from July 2024 to April 2026 tracking independent support decline across demographic groups; reporting on Hispanic and younger independent voters; economic concerns and cost-of-living approval ratings
- The New York Times — May 2026 poll showing most voters think Trump made wrong decision on Iran war
- AP VoteCast — 2024 election data on independent voter support and inflation as primary concern; 2024 vs. 2020 comparison of independent voting patterns
