The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 could range from 3.8% to 4.7%, according to new estimates released as inflation climbed to its highest level in three years, with the Senior Citizens League forecasting 3.8% and independent analyst Mary Johnson projecting as much as 4.7%.
The surge in COLA estimates reflects May’s consumer price data, which showed the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)—the measure used to calculate Social Security adjustments—rising 4.4% over the past 12 months, according to CNBC. That’s the highest annual inflation rate since early 2023.
Gasoline prices drove much of the increase. Energy prices, especially fuel, accounted for more than 60% of the monthly CPI jump in May, according to CBS News. Gasoline prices rose 40.7% year-over-year and jumped 7% in May alone, with average prices hitting about $4.31 per gallon at the pump, according to CNBC.
“There’s a considerable likelihood that it’s going to climb even higher than 4.7% as data continues to come in, especially on the gasoline prices,” Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, told CNBC. Johnson had previously forecast a 4.2% COLA for 2027 in May.
The estimates represent a significant jump from the current 2026 COLA of 2.8%, which beneficiaries began receiving in January. At a 3.8% rate, the average Social Security benefit would rise by $77 per month from the current $2,026.41 to $2,103.41, according to 401k Specialist. However, that increase still falls short of what seniors need to keep pace with inflation—beneficiaries would need $94 per month to match May’s inflation rate, Johnson noted.
The annual COLA has averaged about 3.1% over the past decade, according to the Social Security Administration. In recent years, adjustments have swung widely: 8.7% in 2023 following the pandemic inflation surge, then 3.2% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, as inflation moderated.
The Social Security Administration typically announces the official COLA for the following year in October, based on third-quarter inflation data. That means the final 2027 adjustment won’t be set until October 2026, giving several more months of inflation readings to influence the outcome. If gasoline prices remain elevated through the summer, the COLA could climb even higher than current forecasts suggest.
Sources
- CNBC — 2027 COLA range of 3.8% to 4.7%, May inflation data, CPI-W figures, Mary Johnson’s analysis and quote, average benefit increase, historical COLA average
- 401k Specialist — TSCL 3.8% forecast, average benefit increase of $77 at 3.8% COLA, inflation context
- CBS News — May inflation at 4.2% annually, energy prices accounting for 60% of monthly CPI increase
- Fox Business — Gasoline price increases in May and year-over-year comparisons
- Social Security Administration — 2026 COLA of 2.8%, historical COLA data for 2024 and 2025
