The May consumer price index is set to be released Wednesday, June 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists forecasting an annual inflation rate of 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April—marking the highest level since April 2023.
The forecast comes from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and FactSet, according to reports from Morningstar, CNBC, and Kiplinger. The expected increase would represent a 0.5% month-over-month rise in consumer prices, according to multiple sources tracking the data.
The 4.2% annual rate would mark a significant acceleration in inflation after months of relative stability. When April 2023 registered 4.9% inflation, it represented the smallest 12-month increase in two years at that time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The May 2026 forecast of 4.2% would be the highest inflation reading since then, a gap of nearly three years.
What’s Driving Inflation Higher
Energy prices are the primary culprit behind the expected rise. The energy index increased 17.9% over the 12 months ending April 2026, according to the BLS. Food prices, which increased 3.2% year-over-year in April, are also contributing to the broader inflation picture, with energy-driven costs pushing food inflation upward across the supply chain, according to reporting from The Food Foundation and multiple economic analysts.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, is forecast to rise 2.9% year-over-year in May, according to Morningstar and CBS News. This measure is watched closely by policymakers as a sign of underlying price pressures in the economy.
Federal Reserve’s Shifting Stance
The elevated inflation forecast has forced the Federal Reserve to reconsider its policy outlook. At the start of 2026, most Fed officials expected to lower interest rates this year, according to reporting from The New York Times. That expectation has shifted dramatically in light of rising energy prices and sticky inflation.
In May 2026 FOMC minutes released on May 20, officials signaled that interest rate increases would be necessary if inflation remained elevated or if geopolitical tensions continued to drive energy prices higher, according to CNBC. A majority of Federal Reserve officials anticipated rate hikes could be needed if the Iran war continued to aggravate inflation, marking a reversal from earlier expectations for rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve currently maintains its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, according to Reuters reporting from June 8, 2026. Market contacts attributed recent increases in inflation compensation to higher energy prices, according to the Federal Reserve’s own May meeting minutes.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — May 12, 2026 CPI summary and April 2026 inflation data; energy and food index increases
- Morningstar — May CPI forecast showing 0.5% monthly and 4.2% annual inflation; core CPI forecast at 2.9%
- CNBC — May inflation forecast and Federal Reserve May minutes on rate hike signals
- Trading Economics — May 2026 inflation forecast at 4.2%, highest since April 2023
- Kiplinger — May CPI expectations for headline and core inflation
- CBS News — May 2026 CPI forecast and April 2026 inflation context
- The New York Times — Federal Reserve’s shift from rate-cut expectations to rate-hike consideration
- Reuters — Federal Reserve’s current interest rate range and inflation expectations survey
- The Food Foundation — Energy-driven food price inflation in 2026
