Social Security trust funds are projected to deplete in 2034, the same timeline as last year’s forecast, according to the 2026 trustees report released June 9, 2026, though the retirement fund alone will run dry sooner.
The combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance trust funds will become exhausted in the third quarter of 2034, at which point there would be sufficient income to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits, the Social Security Administration announced. The OASI trust fund—which supports retirement benefits—faces a more urgent crisis, projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, leaving only 78 percent of retirement benefits payable.
The report shows Social Security’s long-term financial imbalance has worsened significantly. The 75-year actuarial deficit grew 16 percent, rising from 3.82 percent of payroll in last year’s report to 4.42 percent of payroll this year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s analysis of the trustees’ findings.
Three major factors drove the deterioration. Lower projected fertility rates accounted for more than half the decline, as the trustees lowered their ultimate fertility rate from 1.9 to 1.75 children per woman due to ongoing birth declines. Lower assumed immigration explained a third of the worsening, with projections of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants declining from 1.35 million to 1.2 million annually. The remaining decline came from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduced revenue from the income taxation of Social Security benefits.
When the combined trust funds deplete in 2034, automatic benefit reductions would apply unless Congress acts. The law mandates that once reserves are exhausted, benefits are limited to incoming payroll tax revenue. At that point, current benefit levels cannot be sustained, triggering the 17 percent reduction for combined beneficiaries or the 22 percent cut facing retirement beneficiaries when the OASI fund alone runs dry in 2032.
The trustees emphasized that delay increases the cost of reform. Acting today could restore solvency through a 34 percent payroll tax increase, a 25 percent reduction in total benefits, or a 30 percent reduction in benefits for new beneficiaries. Waiting until 2034 would require adjustments about 15 percent larger—a 40 percent tax increase or 29 percent benefit cut for all beneficiaries, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The combined trust fund reserves declined by $160 billion in 2025 to $2.56 trillion, while annual program costs exceeded annual income in 2026 and are projected to remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period.
Sources
- Social Security Administration — 2026 trustees report press release confirming combined trust fund depletion in 2034 and OASI depletion in 2032, with benefit payability percentages
- Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — detailed analysis of demographic and policy factors driving the 16 percent increase in the actuarial deficit, and reform cost comparisons
