Citi raised its 2026 Brent crude market outlook in a research note and warned investors that the market faces heightened volatility as geopolitical risks keep supplies uncertain.
The bank updated its forecasts for Brent after reassessing disruption scenarios, saying the outlook now includes a wider range of possible outcomes and that price swings could be large enough to trigger policy or strategic responses.
Citi’s note, led by the bank’s commodities desk, sets out a refreshed base case and separate bull and bear scenarios rather than a single fixed price, signalling more pronounced short-term moves in Brent crude than previously assumed.
The research adds that in the base case the bank assumes a period of disrupted flows and assigns explicit probabilities to scenarios, and that volatility would persist until either strategic intervention or a re-opening of key shipping routes stabilises supply.
Near-term scenarios and risks
Citi projects that Brent could climb to about $110–$120 a barrel in the near term if conflict-driven disruptions continue, and it named a bull case that could push prices as high as $150 per barrel, according to the bank’s detailed scenario analysis.
The note assigns probabilities to each outcome and warns the market is pricing insufficient risk, meaning even modest additional supply curbs could produce outsized moves in Brent prices, the bank said in the research cited by commodities desks.
Analysts and market watchers have already responded in published coverage: outlets summarising Citi’s update reported a raised Q3 Brent forecast and highlighted the bank’s warning that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could lead to much higher peaks.
For readers tracking oil markets, the Citi outlook matters because it shifts the risk profile for crude and energy-sensitive sectors, and because sharp Brent moves can feed into fuel-cost forecasts and corporate guidance for carriers and industrial firms.
Internal coverage on recent oil moves provides related context for how higher fuel costs are already affecting businesses and regional flows: see reporting on Brent slips to $108.09 and on the recovery in Gulf shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz oil flow recovery.
Sources
- Investing.com — reported Citi’s near-term projection that Brent could rise to $110–$120/bbl and cited the bank’s bull case of up to $150/bbl.
- FX Bank Forecast — republished Reuters coverage noting Citi raised its Q3 2026 Brent forecast and revised its 2026 outlook.
