NASA says new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 have reduced the asteroid impact probability for Earth to 0.28% for its Dec. 22, 2032 close approach.
The update comes from NASA’s Planetary Defense blog, which reported that “observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%.”
NASA’s post explains the risk dropped after additional tracking refined the asteroid’s orbit, a common result when new measurements narrow uncertainties before a projected close approach.
BBC News reported related modelling that now places 2024 YR4 with a near-zero chance of striking Earth while raising a nonzero chance of a lunar impact: “2024 YR4 won’t hit Earth but now has a 3.8% chance of striking the Moon.”
Planetary defense teams routinely update impact probabilities as telescopes collect more data; NASA’s blog and other outlets say that most early, higher odds fall as follow-up observations tighten orbital paths.
For readers tracking space activity more broadly, agencies also publish operational updates tied to ongoing missions and launches, including cargo swaps and Starlink deployments that keep observatory networks and tracking assets in routine use.
Internal links: see International Space Station update for operations context and SpaceX launch targets for recent launch activity.
Sources
- NASA — Planetary Defense blog: “observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%.”
- BBC News — reported that “2024 YR4 won’t hit Earth but now has a 3.8% chance of striking the Moon.”
- ABC News — coverage of asteroid risk and tracking (background reporting used to corroborate reporting trends).
