A new Quantus Insights poll shows Peggy Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 48.2% to 44.4% in Minnesota, with the survey conducted September 8–10 among likely voters.
The Quantus report says the Minnesota interview included 720 likely voters and carries a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points; after leaners were allocated the poll produced a 48.9%–45.4% Flanagan margin, the firm reported.
Newsweek, which summarized the Quantus release, noted the poll found 88.6% of respondents described themselves as “definitely decided,” and that the survey showed a sharp age and gender split: Flanagan led younger voters and women while Tafoya led older voters and men.
Quantus’s release gives cross-tabs showing Flanagan leading 63%–34% among voters ages 30–44 and Tafoya leading 54%–38% among voters 45–64, details the firm posted with its technical report and crosstabs.
The race is being watched nationally; Newsweek cited the Cook Political Report’s recent rating of the Minnesota Senate contest as Likely Democrat and pointed to other public polls — including a TIPP/League of American Workers survey and an August KSTP/SurveyUSA poll — that also show Flanagan with a narrow advantage.
Political forecasters and markets have reflected the tilt: Newsweek reported prediction markets giving Flanagan a substantially higher probability of winning than Tafoya, while statewide polling averages continue to show a competitive contest.
The Quantus findings and the wider polling picture leave the contest inside the range where turnout and late shifts could matter, given the poll’s ±4.2-point margin of error and the roughly 4-point gap reported by Quantus.
For broader Minnesota context, see recent state coverage from the site on the Minnesota Supreme Court and national polling analysis in Nate Silver’s forecast.
Sources
- Quantus Insights — poll results showing Flanagan 48.2%, Tafoya 44.4%; 720 likely voters; Sept. 8–10; margin of error ±4.2 points and post-leaner 48.9%–45.4%.
- Newsweek — summarized the Quantus release, reported the “definitely decided” rate (88.6%), demographic splits, and noted other polls and Cook Political Report race rating.
