Brandon Herrera, a gun rights YouTuber known as “The AK Guy,” leads Democrat Katy Padilla Stout by six points in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District race, according to a Remington Research Group poll released in August. The survey showed Herrera with 47 percent of the vote to Stout’s 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided and 2 percent supporting other candidates, setting up a closely watched general election on November 3.
Herrera secured the Republican nomination after incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress in April amid allegations of a sexual affair with a congressional staffer and faced an imminent House expulsion vote. Herrera, who had finished first in the March primary, was headed to a runoff with Gonzales when the congressman dropped out, leaving Herrera as the GOP nominee by default.
The district stretches from San Antonio into West Texas and covers a large swath of the Texas-Mexico border. It voted for President Donald Trump by 15 points in 2024 and is rated as “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report, yet Democrats have identified it as a genuine opportunity. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the 23rd District to its “Districts in Play” target list in August, signaling national party leaders’ belief they can flip a seat held by Republicans since 2015.
Padilla Stout, a San Antonio attorney and former teacher, is betting that Herrera’s provocative YouTube history and controversial comments make him vulnerable in the district’s majority-Hispanic electorate. National outlets, including the New York Times, have scrutinized Herrera’s past remarks, and Democrats are wagering they can cast him as too extreme for a border district.
Herrera’s financial advantage has been one of his biggest assets in the race. Federal Election Commission records showed that by the end of June, Herrera had $309,000 in his main campaign account compared to Padilla Stout’s $171,000. However, his lead of six points remains below the district’s historical Republican performance, and he continues to poll below the 50 percent threshold—a position he would prefer to have locked down ahead of November.
The race also occurs against the backdrop of gun policy. The district includes Uvalde, where a gunman killed 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary in 2022. Herrera attacked Gonzales’ support for the bipartisan gun bill that followed, while building his first campaign on opposing new gun restrictions. Democrats plan to lean on gun policy in the fall, wagering it turns out women voters, who poll more supportive of gun control than men.
Sources
- The Truth About Guns — Remington Research Group poll showing Herrera leading 47-41, survey details and race context
- Texas Tribune — DCCC adding district to target list, Trump’s 2024 margin, Herrera’s background and Gonzales’ resignation, fundraising figures
- Breitbart — Confirmation of Herrera’s 47-41 lead over Padilla Stout in August poll
