President Donald Trump’s approval rating is now underwater in every major swing state as the 2026 midterm elections approach, according to a new analysis released today by Newsweek. The data, based on Civiqs’ rolling tracking poll and measured on August 31, 2026, shows Trump facing a political landscape that has deteriorated significantly since the start of his second term in January 2025.
Nationally, Trump stands at 35 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval, producing a net approval rating of minus 24. This marks a substantial decline from where he stood when returning to office nearly two years ago, when he held a net approval of minus 10 in comparable 2018 midterm polling.
Every Battleground State Now Negative
The swing state picture presents the most challenging terrain for Republicans ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Trump is now underwater in every major battleground: Arizona at minus 14, Florida at minus 10, Georgia at minus 23, Nevada at minus 23, North Carolina at minus 16, Ohio at minus 17, Pennsylvania at minus 18, and Wisconsin at minus 18, according to the Newsweek analysis.
Several of these states were either positive or evenly divided when Trump took office on January 20, 2025. Florida has moved from plus 9 to minus 10, a 19-point swing. Ohio has fallen from plus 8 to minus 17, a 25-point decline. Nevada shifted from even at 0 to minus 23, while North Carolina went from 0 to minus 16.
The sharpest declines have occurred in states where Trump initially enjoyed strong support. Kentucky dropped from plus 23 to minus 7, a 30-point fall. Oklahoma fell from plus 31 to plus 4, a 27-point decline. Wyoming, Trump’s best-performing state today at plus 22, has still declined from plus 47 at the start of his second term.
Demographic data reveals consistent weakness across younger voters, independents, and college-educated Americans. Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 22 percent approve of Trump’s job performance while 70 percent disapprove. Independents stand at 29 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval. Women disapprove by a 64-to-30 margin.
The Iran war and rising gas prices have emerged as significant factors in Trump’s approval decline. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval at just 33 percent in August, with support for his handling of the Iran war dropping to 31 percent, down from 71 percent Republican approval in June. According to Al Jazeera, falling Republican support, rising gas prices, and fears of a prolonged conflict have driven the decline in backing for the war.
The White House has dismissed polling fluctuations, with spokesperson Davis Ingle arguing that Trump’s 2024 election victory remains the clearest measure of public support. Ingle highlighted the administration’s claims of progress on jobs, inflation, and housing affordability, stating that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump.”
With two months until voters head to the polls, Trump’s approval challenges mirror his first-term experience heading into the 2018 midterms, when he held a net approval of minus 10 at a comparable point. His current net approval of minus 24 leaves him substantially worse off as he enters this critical election period. The clustering of several states—Tennessee and Utah exactly even at 0, Indiana and Nebraska at minus 2—suggests that small shifts in voter sentiment could quickly alter the political map heading into November.
Sources
- Newsweek — State-by-state approval analysis comparing August 31, 2026 ratings with January 20, 2025 baseline; swing state net approval figures; demographic breakdown; historical comparison to 2018 midterms
- Al Jazeera — Iran war support decline, gas prices, and Republican support erosion as factors in Trump approval decline
- Forbes — Iran war approval at 31 percent, down from 71 percent among Republicans in June; comparison to Trump’s 42 percent approval in August 2018
- Times of Israel — Trump approval rating at 33 percent with 64 percent disapproval in Reuters/Ipsos poll
