U.S. Senator Ed Markey leads U.S. Representative Seth Moulton by 28 points in a new UMass Amherst/WCVB poll of Massachusetts Democratic primary voters, with just over a week until the September 1 primary election. The poll shows Markey at 60 percent support compared to Moulton’s 32 percent, a commanding advantage as the race enters its final stretch.
Moulton, a Marine veteran and congressman representing Massachusetts’s 6th district, has centered his campaign on generational change, arguing that Markey—who is 80 years old—has served long enough. Markey, a two-term incumbent who announced that reelection would be his final term, has emphasized his record on progressive issues including climate change and healthcare.
The 28-point lead reflects a significant shift from earlier polling. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll released just days earlier showed Markey ahead by 14 points, with 52 percent to Moulton’s 38 percent. The widening gap suggests momentum toward the incumbent, though pollsters have cautioned that primary races remain unpredictable. Boston Globe political reporter Kelly Garrity noted that recent elections in Michigan and Wisconsin produced results that diverged sharply from late-stage polling predictions.
Markey has faced primary challenges before. In 2020, he defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive Democratic primary, winning 55 percent to Kennedy’s 45 percent. That race was widely viewed as a test of whether an 80-year-old incumbent could hold off a younger, high-profile challenger. The Massachusetts Democratic Party endorsed Markey this cycle, signaling establishment support.
Tatishe Nteta, director of the UMass Poll, said the share of undecided voters has declined significantly, suggesting voters have largely made up their minds. “The margin may not necessarily be exactly what we have, but the likelihood of Markey winning is pretty high,” Nteta said. Among voters who had already cast ballots early, Markey held a substantial edge: 60 percent of those surveyed had voted for him compared to 33 percent for Moulton.
The race has featured disagreements over healthcare policy, with Markey backing Medicare for All and Moulton advocating for universal healthcare. Both candidates faced off in a debate on August 22, where Moulton pressed his argument for a new generation of leadership while Markey defended his record and progressive credentials. The two are scheduled to participate in at least one more debate before the September 1 primary.
Markey’s lead has extended across demographic groups. According to the Boston Globe’s analysis of polling data, Markey maintains broad support among liberals, women, and younger voters, while Moulton performs better with moderates. The incumbent’s advantage among early voters suggests that even if the race tightens in the final days, he has already secured significant support.
Sources
- UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll — August 2026 survey showing Markey at 60%, Moulton at 32%
- Boston Globe — Analysis of polling trends, Suffolk/Globe poll showing 14-point lead, and context on primary unpredictability
- Suffolk University Political Research Center — August 18, 2026 poll showing Markey at 52%, Moulton at 38%
- UMass Poll Director Tatishe Nteta — Commentary on voter decision-making and likelihood of Markey victory
- Wikipedia/Ballotpedia — Primary date (September 1, 2026), candidate backgrounds, and 2020 primary results (Markey 55%, Kennedy 45%)
