Minnesota voters are heading to the polls today to choose between Congresswoman Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan in a competitive Democratic Senate primary to replace retiring Senator Tina Smith. The race has tightened in the final days, with recent polling showing a dramatically narrower gap than earlier summer surveys suggested.
Recent polling shows the race in flux. A SurveyUSA poll released just before election day showed Craig at 42 percent and Flanagan at 40 percent, a dramatic shift from a late-July poll that had Flanagan ahead 46 percent to 32 percent. The New York Times’ polling aggregation shows Flanagan maintaining a lead, with most surveys still favoring the lieutenant governor but within a margin that makes the outcome uncertain.
The primary centers on a sharp ideological divide. Flanagan, backed by the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor party endorsement and Senator Smith’s personal endorsement, represents the progressive wing. Craig, a moderate who has held her U.S. House seat since 2018, has positioned herself as a pragmatist willing to work across party lines. That positioning has become her primary liability in the race.
The defining issue is Craig’s 2025 vote for the Laken Riley Act, an immigration enforcement bill championed by the Trump administration. Craig was the only Minnesota Democrat to support it, a vote she later said she regretted in a March 2026 op-ed. Flanagan has hammered the vote relentlessly, framing it as evidence that Craig cannot be trusted to stand up to Republicans. At a July debate hosted by MPR News, Flanagan reiterated her criticism, while Craig defended her vote as pragmatic but acknowledged her regret.
Craig’s immigration record extends beyond the single vote. She previously supported tighter immigration enforcement earlier in her career, though she has expressed regret for those positions as well. Immigration advocates and progressive activists view her record with skepticism, seeing her current positioning as insufficient redemption for past stances.
The Minnesota primary reflects a broader 2026 pattern of Democratic primaries pitting moderate establishment figures against progressive challengers. In Michigan’s Senate primary just a week ago, progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated moderate Representative Haley Stevens in a bitter, expensive race that divided the state party. According to NBC News, El-Sayed won despite facing a huge advertising disadvantage, suggesting that progressive energy in Democratic primaries remains strong in key Midwestern states.
Flanagan has received prominent endorsements beyond Smith’s backing. Senator Bernie Sanders campaigned for her, and national progressive groups including End Citizens United have backed her candidacy. Craig, meanwhile, has raised significantly more money than Flanagan, giving her a substantial advertising advantage despite the party establishment’s preference for the lieutenant governor.
The winner of today’s primary will face Minnesota’s Republican nominee in November for a seat Democrats have held since 2002. Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the Senate in more than two decades, making the Democratic primary the most competitive contest in the state’s 2026 cycle.
Sources
- New York Times — reported on the competitive primary and Craig’s Laken Riley Act vote as the central dividing issue
- Newsweek — reported the final SurveyUSA poll showing Craig at 42 percent and Flanagan at 40 percent as of August 10
- Native News Online — reported the late-July poll showing Flanagan leading 46 percent to 32 percent
- NBC News — reported on El-Sayed’s victory over Stevens in Michigan’s August 4 Democratic Senate primary
- MPR News — reported on the July 27 debate between Craig and Flanagan and the Laken Riley Act dispute
- The Hill — reported Bernie Sanders’ prediction of a tight Minnesota primary between progressive Flanagan and moderate Craig
- Star Tribune — reported on policy differences between Craig and Flanagan, including the military aid to Israel vote
- Minnesota Reformer — reported Craig’s March 2026 reversal on the Laken Riley Act
- Ballotpedia — confirmed Flanagan won the DFL endorsement and that Tina Smith endorsed Flanagan
