A new James Madison Institute poll shows Byron Donalds commanding the Florida Republican primary race for governor with 49% support, holding a commanding 31-point lead over his nearest rival. The survey, conducted July 20-26 among 1,400 registered voters, puts Lt. Gov. Jay Collins in second place at 18%, followed by former House Speaker Paul Renner at 8% and businessman James Fishback at 4%.
Donalds, a three-term U.S. Representative from Naples representing Florida’s 19th Congressional District, has leveraged strong advantages heading into the August 18 primary. President Trump’s endorsement of Donalds has played a significant role in his frontrunner status, according to reporting from the Tallahassee Democrat, which noted that only Donalds among the four prominent Republican candidates has secured Trump’s backing.
The poll shows Donalds closing strong. Among voters considered unlikely to vote, Donalds still holds a plurality at 28%, suggesting his support extends beyond the most engaged Republican base. He performs particularly well among younger voters, drawing 61% support among those under 25—far outpacing Fishback, who draws just 5% of that demographic despite being positioned as appealing to younger voters.
In general election matchups tested by the poll, Donalds leads likely Democratic nominee David Jolly 45% to 38% among likely voters, while Collins also leads Jolly by a similar margin, 44% to 39%. However, Jolly dominates among independent voters, leading both Donalds 36% to 19% and Collins 34% to 21%, with more than 40% of no-party-affiliation voters undecided in either scenario.
The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 2.62 percentage points. The Republican primary takes place on Tuesday, August 18, with early voting running from August 3-16. Florida is a closed primary state, meaning only registered Republicans can vote in the GOP primary race.
Sources
- Florida Politics — James Madison Institute poll showing Donalds at 49% with 31-point lead, conducted July 20-26 among 1,400 registered voters; includes general election matchup data and demographic breakdowns
- Tallahassee Democrat — Reporting on Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and its impact on the primary race; published July 31, 2026
- Florida Division of Elections — Primary election date (August 18, 2026) and early voting dates
