Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 5 percentage points in the latest Texas Senate race poll, marking his largest advantage in any public survey since the general election period began. According to Texas Public Opinion Research, Talarico is at 45 percent while Paxton sits at 40 percent, with the remaining voters undecided or supporting other candidates.
The poll, conducted July 15-17 with 1,048 likely voters, reveals significant shifts in voter preferences. Talarico commands a 20-point advantage among independents (43% to 23%) and has opened a surprising 9-point lead among non-college-educated voters—a traditionally Republican-leaning demographic that has consistently favored GOP candidates in Texas elections.
Black voters overwhelmingly support Talarico at 71 percent compared to 8 percent for Paxton, while Latino voters favor the Democrat by a 66-to-20 margin. Among white voters, Paxton maintains a 53-to-33 advantage. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A separate Fox News poll released in early August showed an even tighter race, with Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 48 percent among registered voters. The tightening contest reflects a significant challenge for Republicans in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over three decades.
Paxton’s 40 percent in the latest survey marks his lowest showing in any public poll since he won the Republican primary runoff in May by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Other recent polls had suggested Republicans were consolidating behind the attorney general, but the Texas Public Opinion Research survey found 12 percent of Republicans undecided and 7 percent willing to vote for Talarico—far higher defection rates than in competing surveys.
Talarico has significantly outraised Paxton in the race. As of July 2026, Talarico had raised $68.6 million compared to Paxton’s $9.25 million, giving the Democrat a substantial financial advantage heading into the final months before Election Day. The race is expected to be one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation.
The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as “Lean Republican,” though the recent polling surge has intensified focus on the state as a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats. Democrats believe a combination of Trump’s lagging approval ratings, Paxton’s record as attorney general, and Talarico’s populist messaging could break the party’s 38-year statewide losing streak. Republicans, meanwhile, argue that as the bitter primary between Paxton and Cornyn fades from memory, voters will consolidate around Paxton and reject what they characterize as Talarico’s progressive positions on social issues.
The poll also found high levels of undecided voters across statewide races, with 14 percent of all voters still unsure about their Senate choice. Among undecided voters, 19 percent lean toward Paxton compared to 10 percent leaning toward Talarico, suggesting the Republican has more room to grow as the election approaches. Early voting begins October 19.
Sources
- The Texas Tribune — Full details of Texas Public Opinion Research poll showing Talarico at 45%, Paxton at 40%, and demographic breakdowns
- The Hill — Fox News poll results showing Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 48%
- Ballotpedia — Campaign fundraising totals and primary results
- Newsweek — Polling average and race dynamics
