The upcoming Social Security adjustment for 2027 is forecast at 3.8 percent, according to The Senior Citizens League, as cooling inflation has moderated earlier expectations for the annual cost-of-living increase.
The 3.8 percent projection represents a modest increase from the 2.8 percent COLA beneficiaries received in 2026, according to the Social Security Administration. If the estimate holds, the average monthly Social Security benefit would rise by approximately $74, from an estimated $1,938 to about $2,011, according to the Senior Citizens League analysis.
The forecast comes after inflation eased to 3.5 percent in June as energy prices fell, according to government data released in July. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, estimated the 2027 COLA at 3.7 percent, down 1 full percentage point from her projection just one month earlier when she forecast 4.7 percent. “This is a significant drop in inflation, and one that we’ve rarely seen in the June CPI data over the past five years,” Johnson said in a statement reported by CNBC.
Estimates for the 2027 adjustment vary slightly among analysts. The AARP projects a 3.6 percent COLA, while the Senior Citizens League holds to its 3.8 percent estimate, unchanged from the prior month. These forecasts remain subject to change as additional inflation data is collected through September.
Social Security COLAs are calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W for the third quarter—July, August, and September—of the current year with the same three-month average from the prior year. The official 2027 COLA will be announced in October 2026 once the third-quarter data is finalized.
The 3.8 percent projection, if confirmed, would represent a return to more moderate increases after recent years of elevated adjustments. In 2023, beneficiaries received an 8.7 percent COLA, one of the largest in decades, driven by the post-pandemic inflation surge. Over the past 10 years, the average annual COLA has been 3.1 percent, according to the Social Security Administration.
The upcoming adjustment reflects broader economic trends as inflation moderates from its peaks. Retirees’ confidence in retirement security has declined, however, with a January 2026 survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute finding that retirement confidence among retirees fell to 73 percent, down 5 percentage points. Top concerns included inflation, healthcare costs, and housing expenses, according to the survey of over 1,000 retirees.
The 3.8 percent COLA forecast remains provisional until the official announcement, which will occur after July, August, and September inflation data is released. Beneficiaries should expect the final determination in mid-October 2026, with the increased payments beginning in January 2027.
Sources
- CNBC — Confirmed the 3.8% and 3.7% COLA estimates and explained how inflation data drives the forecast; included Mary Johnson’s analysis of the sharp month-over-month decline in expectations.
- The Senior Citizens League — Provided the 3.8% COLA forecast and calculated the impact on average monthly benefits ($74 increase from $1,938 to $2,011).
- Social Security Administration — Confirmed the 2.8% COLA for 2026, explained the CPI-W calculation methodology, and the October 2026 announcement timing.
- AARP — Provided the 3.6% alternative COLA estimate based on current inflation analysis.
- Employee Benefit Research Institute — Reported January 2026 retirement confidence survey showing 73% confidence among retirees and top concerns about inflation and healthcare costs.
