Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment estimate remains at 3.8%, unchanged from last month as cooling inflation tempered expectations, according to new projections released this week.
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, estimates the 2027 Social Security COLA will be 3.8%, holding steady from its June projection. This represents an increase of 1 percentage point from 2026’s 2.8% COLA, which added about $56 per month to the average retiree’s benefit.
June inflation data released Tuesday showed the consumer price index rose 3.5% over the past 12 months, lower than expected due to a decline in energy prices. This cooling in inflation prompted at least one independent analyst to lower her forecast. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, now estimates the 2027 COLA will be 3.7%—a full percentage point drop from her 4.7% estimate issued just one month earlier. “This is a significant drop in inflation, and one that we’ve rarely seen in the June CPI data over the past five years,” Johnson said in a statement.
The annual COLA is calculated by comparing the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September of the prior year with the same three-month average from the current year. The official COLA for 2027 will not be announced until October 2026, so these estimates may shift as more inflation data arrives in the coming months.
If the projected 3.8% COLA takes effect, the average monthly Social Security benefit would increase by approximately $73.62, rising from the current estimated $1,937.53 to $2,011.15. Over the past 10 years, the annual COLA has averaged 3.1%, according to the Social Security Administration.
The COLA adjustment is designed to help Social Security benefits keep pace with inflation, protecting retirees’ purchasing power. In 2026, more than 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries received the 2.8% increase. The timing of the 2027 estimate comes as retirement confidence among retirees has declined, with a January survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute finding that retirees’ confidence fell 5 percentage points to 73%, driven by concerns over inflation, healthcare costs, housing expenses, and potential changes to the retirement system.
Sources
- CNBC — 2027 COLA estimate range (3.7%-3.8%), June inflation data, Mary Johnson forecast, Medicare premium information
- The Senior Citizens League — 2027 COLA estimate (3.8%), benefit increase calculation ($73.62 monthly increase)
- Social Security Administration — 2026 COLA (2.8%), 10-year COLA average (3.1%), CPI-W calculation methodology, beneficiary count (75 million)
- Employee Benefit Research Institute — Retirement confidence survey results (73%, 5 percentage point decline)
