Francesca Hong leads Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor with 44% support among likely voters, according to a State Navigate poll released Monday, establishing a commanding 29-point advantage over her nearest competitor two weeks before the August 11 primary.
The poll, conducted from July 23 to 26, shows Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in second place with 15% and former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in third with 14%. State Senator Kelda Roys, businessman Joel Brennan, and former Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez each received 4%, with 13% undecided or unable to recall their vote.
Hong, a 37-year-old state representative from Madison with a background as a chef and bartender, has upended what was already a chaotic Democratic primary. Her rise reflects broader momentum for democratic socialists across the country, though her candidacy has triggered anxiety among mainstream party figures concerned about electability in a closely divided swing state.
Hong’s path to frontrunner status accelerated dramatically after a series of rapid shifts in the race. In early July, the Democratic establishment appeared to coalesce around Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez as an alternative. However, Rodriguez’s campaign imploded following financial mismanagement, and she dropped out. David Crowley, who had previously exited the race to back Rodriguez, reentered eight days later with an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers—a move widely interpreted as an attempt to block Hong’s nomination.
Instead, the maneuver cemented Hong’s status as the frontrunner. “The move has cemented Hong’s status as a frontrunner for the nomination,” according to State Navigate’s analysis of the primary dynamics.
Hong’s campaign has been defined by an unconventional approach that blends populist messaging with what supporters call joy and authenticity. She has hosted dance parties, slumber party-style livestreams, and campaign events styled around the Mexican game of chance “loteria.” Her policy platform overlaps with other Democrats on issues like free school meals and overturning Wisconsin’s Act 10 labor law, but she distinguishes herself with more aggressive stances: she backs universal childcare, has called for establishing a public bank, and is the only Democrat in the field supporting a moratorium on data center construction.
Her democratic socialist identity and working-class background—she has worked as a dishwasher and line cook—have resonated with voters energized by concerns about affordability and opportunity. National media outlets, including the New York Times and Washington Post, have covered her campaign extensively, and she has drawn endorsements from Democratic Socialist Caucus chapters across Wisconsin.
Yet her rise has alarmed many Democrats. The Republican Governors Association has spent approximately $3.6 million on advertising that, while ostensibly critical of Hong, frames her as returning the party to its “progressive roots”—language that actually affirms her supporters’ preferences. Some mainstream Democrats worry that Hong’s politics, untested in a general election for statewide office, would prove untenable in a swing state, potentially handing the race to Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany.
Hong’s campaign has also drawn criticism for some tactical choices. After appearing on two popular left-wing livestreams in recent weeks to raise money and build grassroots support—generating roughly $92,000 in small-dollar donations—Ann Jacobs, a Wisconsin Elections Commission member and cochair of the Jewish Caucus of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, objected to the hosts’ histories of comments she deemed antisemitic. Hong’s campaign countered that the appearances were about reaching disaffected voters, not endorsing every statement a host had made.
Early in-person voting began Monday, July 28, with the primary election scheduled for August 11. With roughly two weeks remaining and a substantial polling lead, Hong appears positioned to win the Democratic nomination, which would set up a general election matchup against Tiffany in a state that has narrowed significantly in recent cycles.
Sources
- State Navigate — Poll showing Hong at 44%, Crowley at 15%, Barnes at 14%; analysis of primary dynamics and candidate positioning
- Wisconsin Public Radio (WPR) — Profile of Hong’s campaign, her background as chef and bartender, her policy positions including data center moratorium and public bank, her unconventional campaigning style, mainstream Democratic concerns about electability, criticism from Ann Jacobs regarding livestream appearances, Republican Governors Association spending of $3.6 million
- PBS NewsHour — Reporting on early voting beginning July 28 and the chaotic Democratic primary for governor
- ABC News — Reporting on Hong as democratic socialist candidate testing swing-state viability
