Morgan Stanley values SpaceX’s AI operations at over $150 per share, according to analyst Adam Jonas, who maintains the bank’s $300 price target even as the stock has plummeted to around $115 following its June debut. The valuation breakdown illustrates a stark disconnect between Wall Street’s assessment and current market sentiment, with Jonas arguing that investors are assigning little or no value to SpaceX’s artificial intelligence assets amid a broader technology sector selloff.
SpaceX priced its record $75 billion initial public offering at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, opening at $150 the next day and briefly reaching an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16. Since then, the stock has shed nearly 50% from that peak, driven by concerns over elevated AI capital spending, upcoming insider lockup expirations, and macro uncertainty. The sharp decline has pushed the stock below its IPO price for the first time, touching a low of $110.85—nearly 18% below the offering price.
Jonas contends that SpaceX’s traditional space and connectivity businesses—launch services, Starship development, and satellite operations—can support roughly $100 per share in value on their own. The additional $200 per share in Morgan Stanley’s $300 target stems largely from xAI, the artificial intelligence company SpaceX acquired in February 2026 at a $250 billion valuation. That acquisition consolidated Musk’s AI ventures, including the Grok chatbot, under SpaceX’s umbrella ahead of the public offering.
According to TheStreet’s analysis of Morgan Stanley’s research, many investors are assigning “zero or even negative value” to SpaceX’s AI division, citing high capital expenditure requirements, uncertain long-term economics, and the risk that the business will consume cash generated by more mature space operations. Morgan Stanley’s framework applies a sum-of-the-parts valuation: space and connectivity value plus AI value equals total equity value. The bank’s analysts believe the market is overlooking a critical asset in its rush to penalize the company for near-term spending pressures.
The Broader Tech Selloff and AI Spending Concerns
SpaceX’s decline mirrors a wider rotation away from high-capital-expenditure technology companies. Beginning in mid-June 2026, investors have questioned whether the soaring valuations and massive spending on AI infrastructure can be justified by near-term returns. Fortune reported in mid-July that major AI and semiconductor stocks faced severe valuation resets, with global semiconductor market capitalization dropping $3.3 trillion. The Guardian noted in late June that losses spread globally as investors questioned both valuations and spending on AI infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley reiterated its $300 price target on July 24, 2026, arguing that at $100 per share, SpaceX stock would price in “zero” AI value. The analyst contends that if SpaceX’s launch and connectivity businesses can independently support a $100 valuation—a reasonable baseline given the company’s market position and revenue trajectory—then the current stock price represents an opportunity. Morgan Stanley forecasts SpaceX’s AI revenue could reach $190 billion by 2030, up from $3.2 billion in 2025, though those projections depend on successful execution in a competitive market.
The investment thesis hinges on two conditions, per TheStreet’s analysis: first, that SpaceX’s space operations genuinely support a $100 floor, and second, that the AI division eventually produces returns above its cost of capital. If either assumption breaks down—if space operations prove less valuable than expected or if AI spending yields diminishing returns—the stock price could face further downside. Wall Street consensus puts SpaceX’s average 12-month price target at $236.71, implying over 100% upside from current levels, though forecasts range widely from $62 to $800, reflecting sharp disagreement over execution risk and the viability of the AI business.
For now, Morgan Stanley’s $150 per share AI valuation stands as one of the most bullish takes on SpaceX’s artificial intelligence prospects, even as the market punishes the company for the capital intensity of building that business. Whether that AI value materializes will likely determine whether the current stock price represents a generational buying opportunity or a sign that investors are right to be cautious about Musk’s latest venture.
Sources
- TheStreet — Morgan Stanley’s valuation framework for SpaceX’s AI operations, analyst Adam Jonas’s $300 price target, and the market’s treatment of AI assets.
- Reuters — SpaceX IPO pricing at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, and the $75 billion raise; SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI in February 2026.
- Bloomberg — Morgan Stanley’s assessment that SpaceX at $100 per share would imply zero AI value.
- CNBC — SpaceX’s opening trade at $150 on June 12, 2026, and subsequent stock performance.
- Fortune — Broader tech sector selloff in mid-July 2026 and valuation concerns in AI infrastructure stocks.
- The Guardian — Global spread of AI stock selloff in late June 2026 and investor concerns over valuations and spending.
- Seeking Alpha — Wall Street consensus price targets and analyst disagreement on SpaceX valuation.
