The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index fell to 104.2 in the second quarter of 2026, marking its lowest point in 12 months and signaling that workers are increasingly likely to leave their current roles in the near term. The decline of 1.3 points from the previous quarter reflects a shift in how employees evaluate their options, even as some confidence in their employers strengthens.
The index’s drop stems from a sharp divergence in worker sentiment. Compensation sentiment plummeted 5.6 points—the only decline among the index’s four key indicators—as employees scrutinize the value and growth potential of their pay and benefits more closely. Simultaneously, the Job Market Opportunity indicator rose 1.9 points to 100.0, rebounding after two consecutive periods of decline and reflecting growing worker optimism about available opportunities outside their current employers.
This combination creates a critical dynamic: as workers perceive fewer reasons to stay (compensation concerns) and more reasons to leave (job market optimism), retention risk rises. According to Eagle Hill Consulting President and CEO Melissa Jezior, the findings warrant urgent attention from employers. “Because Millennials increasingly occupy roles that connect strategy, leadership, and execution, declining retention sentiment within this group could create risks that extend beyond turnover alone,” Jezior stated in the index report. “Employers may benefit from taking a holistic view of the employee experience, including career growth, organizational culture, leadership effectiveness, and rewards.”
Millennials are experiencing the sharpest attrition risk. Their Retention Index fell 6.1 points to 107.6 in the quarter—the largest decline among all generational cohorts—despite having held a comparatively strong retention outlook in prior quarters. The decline was driven by diminished perceptions across multiple dimensions: organizational confidence fell 2.9 points, compensation declined 5.6 points, and culture dropped 5.5 points. Simultaneously, Millennials reported growing optimism about external job opportunities, with their Job Market Opportunity indicator rising 1.5 points. This pattern signals a generation increasingly dissatisfied with current circumstances and attracted by alternatives elsewhere.
The broader labor market supports this shift in worker confidence. Nearly half of U.S. workers plan to look for a new job within six months, according to a June 2026 survey, up from 38% in the first half of 2026 and 27% one year ago. Career development and advancement remain the most commonly cited reason for considering a move, with other studies identifying lack of career growth (41%), low pay (36%), and inadequate management as top drivers of employee departures.
While the Eagle Hill Consulting index signals that workforce retention will remain relatively strong by historical standards, the downward trend observed since the third quarter of 2025 represents what the firm describes as “early signs of increased workforce mobility in the months ahead.” For employers, the message is clear: workers are reassessing their options, and organizations that fail to address compensation concerns, career development, and workplace culture risk losing talent to competitors perceived as offering better opportunities.
Sources
- Eagle Hill Consulting — Employee Retention Index Q2 2026 release; detailed breakdown of retention indicators, compensation sentiment decline, and Millennial attrition risk
- PR Newswire — Eagle Hill Retention Index announcement; confirmation of 104.2 index level and 1.3-point decline
- HRTech Edge — Coverage of Q2 2026 retention sentiment decline and compensation concerns
- Yahoo Finance — Data on nearly half of U.S. workers planning job searches within six months
- Indeed.com — 16 Reasons Why Employees Choose To Leave Their Jobs; career development and compensation as top factors
- Facebook / Express Employment International — Top reasons for employee departures: lack of career development (41%), low pay (36%), uncaring management
