Home prices hit an all-time record in June 2026 even as sales slowed, revealing a housing market caught between rising values and weakening buyer demand that has prompted major forecasters to slash growth projections. Existing home sales declined 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors, while the median home price reached an unprecedented level.
The divergence between record prices and falling sales prompted Realtor.com to cut its 2026 home price growth forecast to just 1.2% through year-end, down sharply from an initial projection of 2.2% issued in December. “The drop in the home price forecast for 2026 is largely based on the trend of softer sales and asking prices so far this year,” said Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Although inventory growth has moderated from our original projection, the number of homes for sale continues to rise, sapping some momentum from home prices.”
The slowdown marks a significant shift from earlier expectations. National prices grew 2% in 2025, but the newly revised forecast suggests growth will barely keep pace with normal economic activity this year. More notably, the 1.2% projected increase trails inflation expected to run at 3.4% annually, meaning home prices are actually falling in real terms relative to other goods and services.
For buyers, the softer price growth offers modest relief. The typical monthly mortgage payment for a median home sold is projected to fall 1.9% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com’s analysis. This improvement comes despite mortgage rates remaining elevated at an expected 6.3% average through year-end—still dramatically higher than the 4% average from 2013 to 2019. Rising household incomes, projected to grow 3.9% this year, are also helping to ease affordability pressures when combined with slower price growth.
The forecast revision reflects broader market dynamics. Softer demand from buyers, particularly in well-supplied regions of the South and West, has prompted builders to pull back on new construction. Single-family housing starts are now projected to rise just 2% to 960,000 units, down from 3.1% anticipated earlier. Meanwhile, sellers have begun adjusting to the new environment by listing homes with more realistic asking prices from the start, a shift that Realtor.com says is helping buyers and sellers find common ground and close deals despite the challenging conditions.
Sources
- Realtor.com — 2026 midyear forecast update, home price growth cut to 1.2%, mortgage payment projections, inventory analysis, and statements from Chief Economist Danielle Hale
- National Association of Realtors — June 2026 existing home sales data showing 2.4% decline and median home price at all-time high
- Reuters — Confirmation of June 2026 home sales drop and NAR data
- Bloomberg — June 2026 existing home sales decline and affordability analysis
- Yahoo Finance — Home sales data and affordability commentary for June 2026
