UBS analyst David Vogt reiterated a Neutral rating on Apple stock with a $296 price target on July 1, citing challenges including increased memory costs and weaker-than-expected iPhone shipments in China, according to the firm’s latest research note. The price target reflects UBS’s cautious stance on the tech giant despite strong recent earnings performance.
The analyst’s reaffirmation came following a UBS Evidence Lab survey of over 7,500 smartphone users across the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan. The survey revealed mixed signals on iPhone demand. In the U.S., 12-month global iPhone purchase intent rose approximately 300 basis points year-over-year to approximately 20%, while China fell approximately 100 basis points year-over-year to approximately 15%, according to the survey data cited by UBS.
Memory and storage chip costs have emerged as a significant pressure on Apple’s profitability. Apple’s product gross margin fell to 38.7% in the March-quarter 2026 period, down from 40.7% in the prior quarter, with the decline partly attributed to elevated memory costs. In response, Apple announced price increases for MacBooks, iPads, and other select devices this week, with adjustments ranging from 17% to 25% for base-model configurations, according to reporting on the company’s strategy to offset rising component expenses.
Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed to the Wall Street Journal in mid-June that price hikes across the product lineup are now “unavoidable” due to skyrocketing memory and storage chip costs, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure. The memory chip shortage has become acute enough that even large manufacturers like Apple and Microsoft have begun passing costs to consumers, a shift that reflects the intensity of AI-driven procurement competing for limited memory supply.
UBS noted in its reiteration that iPhone sell-in declined by approximately 19% year-over-year in May, a metric the firm has flagged as a concern despite Apple’s overall strong Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings, which beat expectations. The analyst maintains that while near-term earnings may be supported, longer-term risks including product delays, less innovative offerings, and valuation pressures justify the Neutral stance. Apple stock closed at $294.38 on July 1, near the firm’s $296 target.
Sources
- Investing.com — UBS reiterates Apple stock neutral rating on survey data, holds $296 target (July 1, 2026)
- Reuters — Apple to raise prices due to memory chip shortage, CEO tells WSJ (June 17, 2026)
- Tidbits — Tim Cook confirms Apple will raise prices due to memory and storage costs; product gross margin detail for Q2 2026 (June 18, 2026)
- CNBC — Memory crunch shaking Apple and Microsoft, existential for smaller firms (June 27, 2026)
