Mortgage rates are holding near 6.4% as summer homebuying season begins in July 2026, according to Fannie Mae’s latest housing forecast. The 30-year fixed rate is expected to remain stable throughout the rest of the year, keeping borrowing costs elevated even as home prices show signs of relief.
The current rate environment reflects a shift in the housing market. Median home listing prices fell 2.5% year-over-year in June to $430,000, according to Realtor.com, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This cooling in prices comes as the market enters its peak summer buying season, when home sales typically accelerate.
Mortgage affordability has improved modestly despite rates staying elevated. The Housing Affordability Index reached 110.6 in May 2026, according to Ameris Bank, signaling that median-income households can now afford a greater share of homes on the market. First-time buyers have also returned to the market, accounting for a growing portion of sales, according to Churchill Mortgage’s June report.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that 30-year fixed rates will remain in the mid-6% range through the end of 2026, with rates projected at 6.5% for the third and fourth quarters. The Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts has contributed to mortgage rates staying higher than earlier expectations; the central bank has held the federal funds rate steady since January 2026 to assess the impact of previous cuts and monitor inflation tied to global energy prices.
Experts caution that rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully in the near term. A June Reuters poll of property specialists found that the current mid-6% mortgage rate is “not expected to fall meaningfully any time soon,” though rates may ease slightly toward year-end, potentially reaching 6.3% in the fourth quarter. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates track more closely than the federal funds rate, continues to be influenced by investor sentiment about economic growth and inflation.
Sources
- Forbes Advisor — Fannie Mae’s June 2026 Housing Forecast projecting 30-year fixed rates at 6.4% for the remainder of 2026, and Mortgage Bankers Association forecast of 6.5% for Q3 and Q4
- Realtor.com — June 2026 median asking price down 2.5% year-over-year to $430,000, seventh consecutive monthly decline
- Ameris Bank — Housing Affordability Index at 110.6 in May 2026
- Churchill Mortgage — June 2026 Real Estate Market Update reporting home sales up 3.2% and first-time buyers’ growing share
- LendingTree — Fannie Mae forecast of 6.4% average 30-year fixed rates for the rest of 2026
