Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are virtually tied in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll released by the University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project, with Paxton leading 43% to 42% among likely voters—a margin well within the survey’s 3.5-point error.
The June poll, conducted June 5-12 among 1,200 registered voters, marks a dramatic shift in the race since April. Paxton has surged 9 points from his April showing of 34%, while Talarico has remained flat at 42%, erasing an 8-point deficit the Democrat held just two months earlier.
The tightening reflects a sharp consolidation of Republican voters following the bruising GOP primary runoff. In April, only 63% of Republicans said they would support Paxton in a general election matchup. By June, that figure jumped to 84%—a 21-percentage-point swing—as GOP voters rallied behind the nominee despite lingering tensions from the May 26 runoff, when Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Talarico, a state representative from Austin, is pursuing a different strategy. He is banking on support from independents and moderates, particularly traditional Republicans offended by Paxton’s history of scandal. According to the poll, Talarico leads among independents by a commanding margin: 40% of independents prefer Talarico compared to 12% for Paxton, though 34% of independents remain undecided.
The Democrat also holds leads among specific demographic groups. He leads Paxton by 14 points among Hispanic voters, a key swing demographic, and by 6 points among female voters. Talarico won voters under age 65 and those with at least a two-year college degree. However, Paxton leads among male voters by 9 points, and Talarico has acknowledged weakness with Black voters—about two-thirds said they would vote for him, below the proportion who backed past Democratic Senate nominees in Texas.
Both candidates are seeking to appeal beyond their base in what is likely to become one of the most expensive Senate races in U.S. history. The contest will be decided November 3, 2026, in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for nearly three decades, though recent polling suggests this Senate race could defy that pattern.
The Texas Politics Project poll also found that Republicans hold larger leads in other statewide races. Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 47% to 40% in the gubernatorial contest, while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin 43% to 36% in the lieutenant governor’s race.
Sources
- The Texas Tribune — Poll findings showing Paxton and Talarico virtually tied, 43% to 42%, with margin of error and April comparison.
- Houston Public Media — Republican consolidation figures (84% GOP support for Paxton in June vs. 63% in April) and demographic breakdowns.
- Texas Politics Project at University of Texas at Austin — Poll methodology (1,200 voters, June 5-12), independent support figures, and statewide race comparisons.
