Oil markets spiked Monday as new military strikes in the Middle East collided with sharp rhetoric from the White House, sending benchmark crude higher and raising the prospect of still-more expensive fuel for motorists. Traders priced in heightened supply risk after Iran-backed groups launched attacks and US-Iran tensions flared again.
Brent crude climbed above $115 a barrel in early New York trading before easing to about $114 later in the session; US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly topped $103 and was trading near $102. Markets reacted to a mix of battlefield developments and incendiary remarks from President Trump, who said a deal with Iran might be close while also threatening force against Iranian energy infrastructure if maritime routes remain blocked.
Over the weekend, Yemen’s Houthi movement said it fired cruise missiles and armed drones at Israel — its first direct involvement in the widening conflict — a claim posted by the group’s military spokesman on social media. The escalation added to concerns that the conflict could disrupt shipping through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global energy flows.
OpenAI CEO makes amends with Tumbler Ridge community after backlash
Walmart sales trend echoes past recessions: rising risk for consumers
The broader supply picture already looked fragile: about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas transits the Strait of Hormuz, and strikes and damage at key facilities across the region have reduced available capacity. In response to market strain, the International Energy Agency announced a release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves intended to ease price pressure.
What this means for consumers, markets and policy
Higher crude translates quickly into higher pump prices. The US national average for regular gasoline was roughly $3.99 per gallon on Monday, up from about $2.98 in February, squeezing household budgets as spring driving season approaches.
Equity markets moved unevenly: major Asian bourses fell sharply on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi both off around 3% after earlier deeper losses, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped less than 1%. In Europe, major indexes rose — Germany’s DAX, Britain’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 each gained — and US markets opened mixed, with the Dow higher, the S&P modestly up and the Nasdaq largely flat.
Precious metals gained ground as investors sought safe havens, with gold up roughly 1% and silver climbing nearly 2% on the session.
- Brent: rose above $115 early Monday, later around $114 per barrel.
- WTI: briefly exceeded $103, trading near $102.
- Strait of Hormuz: carries about 20% of globally traded oil and LNG; partial closures or attacks can sharply tighten supplies.
- Houthis: launched missile and drone strikes at Israel, signaling wider regional involvement.
- IEA: released 400 million barrels from strategic stocks to try to calm markets.
- US average gasoline price: roughly $3.99 per gallon, increasing consumer pain at the pump.
Analysts say the mix of active hostilities, threats against energy infrastructure and the possibility of sustained shipping disruptions is keeping traders on edge. “Market nervousness is increasing as this conflict enters its fifth week,” observed Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, noting that troop movements and targeted attacks create the impression of escalation rather than de‑escalation.
Policy and military developments could further shift prices. The Washington Post reported the Pentagon is preparing for extended ground operations, while the US Energy Department has suggested the disruption may not be long term — though no comprehensive exit strategy has been publicly outlined by either side.
For now, the immediate risks are clear: continued hostilities around export hubs or in the Strait would keep upward pressure on crude and on consumer fuel costs, while any credible signs of a negotiated pause or reopening of shipping lanes would likely relieve markets. Traders and households will be watching diplomatic and military moves closely in the hours and days ahead.
