A new Bowling Green State University poll shows sherrod brown ahead of Jon Husted by six points among likely Ohio voters, 48% to 42%.
The poll result was reported by CNN and detailed in The Hill, which noted the BGSU survey was conducted in partnership with YouGov and fielded from Sept. 29 to Oct. 9 among 1,000 likely voters.
The Hill published the BGSU numbers and said Brown’s lead grew from a three-point advantage in September to six points in the latest survey, while CNN’s report grouped the Ohio result with other states where Democratic candidates have gained ground.
The Hill also reported the BGSU poll’s margin of error as 3.95 percentage points and quoted BGSU political science professor Robert Alexander warning the lead could narrow: “While this will be welcome news to Democrats, a blue wave in Ohio is far from a sure thing,” The Hill wrote.
Survey methodology matters: The Hill described the BGSU poll as a web-based survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted with YouGov, and it said voters reported higher Democratic turnout motivation in the sample.
That combination of statewide polling and turnout measures is one reason outlets now classify Ohio among competitive contests this cycle, even as past cycles have tilted Republican, CNN explained in its analysis.
For readers tracking the race, the BGSU figures are one snapshot among several recent polls showing Brown with a small lead; the outcome could still shift before Election Day, analysts told The Hill.
Sources
- CNN — reported that new polls show Democrats leading in key Ohio contests, including Brown’s advantage.
- The Hill — summarized the Bowling Green State University poll showing Brown 48% to Husted 42%, field dates, sample size and margin of error.
