Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told The New York Times he examined the “extreme tail risk” that the U.S. might take military action against Canada, saying it was part of his job to “look at extreme tail risk” as risk management and not a base case.
In the interview, Carney framed the assessment as routine planning: “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to,” the Politico account quoted from the Times reporting. He said he has spoken “frequently” with President Donald Trump and that they have a working, direct line for negotiations.
Carney told the Times he has begun to reduce certain dependencies on U.S. systems as part of broader contingency planning, including looking at alternatives to Starlink and reviewing a planned order of F‑35 fighters from Lockheed Martin, Politico reported.
His remarks come amid rising bilateral tensions after collapsed trade talks and public comments by former President Donald Trump about harsher measures toward Canada, including past social‑media suggestions of annexation and recent tariff threats. Analysts and politicians have treated Carney’s language as a cautious signal that Canada is preparing contingency options rather than predicting imminent action.
Carney described the steps as defensive policy choices. “From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he told the Times via the interview excerpt run by Politico.
Political reaction varied: some Canadian officials called the review a normal element of national security planning, while commentators pointed to the larger context of trade friction and presidential rhetoric that has repeatedly singled out Canada, including tariff threats and public comments about Greenland basing deals.
For readers who want background on the trade tensions that surround these remarks, see coverage of tariff threats and earlier U.S. moves toward Greenland basing.
Mark Carney, Donald Trump and Canada appear across recent coverage as linked strands of policy, diplomacy and contingency planning; Carney’s comments underscore that Ottawa is treating the idea of extreme but remote scenarios as part of standard national-security risk management.
Sources
- POLITICO — reported the Times interview quote that Carney said he “looked at extreme tail risk” and summarized his comments about Starlink and the F‑35 review.
- BNN BLOOMBERG — ran a report stating Carney described the possibility as an “extreme tail risk” and that preparing was “irresponsible not to”.
- THE GLOBE AND MAIL — carried reporting that Carney characterized an invasion scenario as a remote possibility in the NYT interview.
Related coverage: Carney says he studied ‘extreme tail risk’ of U.S. military action, NYT, Trump’s Canada trade war ratchets up with new tariff threats, Trump says US-Denmark deal on Greenland would bar adversary bases
