Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is estimated at 3.5%, and the Social Security Administration will announce the official figure on October 14, 2026, after releasing September inflation data. According to AARP’s projection, the 3.5% increase would add approximately $73 per month to the average retired worker’s benefit, raising it from about $2,026 to roughly $2,099.
The COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, an inflation measure tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the prior year with the same three-month average of the current year to determine the annual adjustment.
The projected 3.5% increase would mark a notable rise from the 2.8% COLA that took effect in January 2026. When the Social Security Administration announced that 2.8% adjustment on October 24, 2025, it applied to nearly 71 million beneficiaries and added roughly $56 per month to the average benefit. The 2026 COLA reflected cooling inflation after the 3.2% increase for 2024 and the 2.5% adjustment for 2025.
The 3.5% estimate for 2027 represents a recovery in benefit growth as inflation has remained elevated. Multiple forecasters tracking inflation trends have projected the 2027 COLA in the 3.1% to 3.6% range, with the final figure dependent on September’s Consumer Price Index data, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release in early October.
The timing of the October 14 announcement follows the established pattern for COLA releases. Each year, the Social Security Administration announces the next year’s adjustment in mid-October, allowing beneficiaries nearly three months’ notice before the increase takes effect in January. The COLA has been calculated based on CPI-W changes since 1975, ensuring that Social Security benefits keep pace with inflation as experienced by urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Sources
- AARP — 2027 COLA estimate of 3.5% and projected monthly benefit increase of $73
- Social Security Administration — October 14 announcement date, COLA calculation methodology using CPI-W, and 2026 COLA announcement details
- Fast Company — AARP projection and monthly benefit impact
- USA Today — October 14 announcement date confirmation
- Yahoo Finance — 2027 COLA projection range and estimated benefit impact
