Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is forecast to reach 3.6 percent, marking the largest increase in four years, according to The Senior Citizens League’s latest projection released in August 2026.
The forecast is 0.8 percentage points higher than the 2.8 percent COLA beneficiaries received in 2026. If the 3.6 percent adjustment takes effect as projected, the average retiree’s monthly benefit would rise by approximately $70, from about $1,938 to roughly $2,008.
The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA by measuring the average yearly change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September. The government uses this three-month average to determine how much purchasing power seniors have lost to inflation and adjusts benefits accordingly starting in January of the following year.
The 2027 COLA forecast reflects inflation’s trajectory throughout 2026. From 2010 to 2019, the CPI-W averaged approximately 1.4 percent annually, but from 2020 to 2025, it averaged 3.7 percent, showing how inflation has remained elevated in recent years compared to the pre-pandemic decade.
A 3.6 percent COLA would represent a significant step up from recent years. The 2024 adjustment was 3.2 percent, and 2025’s was 2.5 percent. The last time seniors saw an increase of this magnitude was in 2023, when the COLA reached 8.7 percent at the peak of post-COVID inflation.
The official COLA announcement is scheduled for October 14, 2026, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data. Until then, The Senior Citizens League and other organizations will continue updating their forecasts as new economic data arrives. The forecast is subject to change based on inflation readings over the remaining months of the year.
Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton noted in the August forecast that inflation’s volatility has been a challenge, with the CPI-W starting 2026 at 2.2 percent, climbing to 4.4 percent in May, then falling to 3.5 percent in June. The organization’s statistical model is designed to smooth out these short-term swings rather than overreact to individual data points.
Other Social Security changes are also coming in 2027, including adjustments to earnings limits and benefit calculations. The full retirement age will reach 67 for those born in 1960 or later, continuing a gradual increase that began years ago.
Sources
- The Senior Citizens League — 2027 COLA forecast of 3.6%, calculation methodology, and executive commentary on inflation volatility
- Social Security Administration — COLA calculation method using CPI-W, historical COLA rates (2023–2026), and announcement timing
- AARP — COLA calculation explanation and historical context
- CNBC — 2027 COLA forecast details and impact on average benefits
- The Hill — 2027 COLA projection and comparison to 2026 increase
