Dow Jones futures are edging higher as traders position ahead of two major catalysts this week: the July personal consumption expenditures inflation report and Nvidia’s earnings announcement, both scheduled for Tuesday, August 26.
The PCE inflation data will release at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 26, marking the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. According to recent forecasts, core PCE — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — is expected to show a 0.2% month-over-month rise, with economists tracking a year-over-year increase of 3.2%, according to Kiplinger. This reading comes as the Fed has held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% for five consecutive meetings, and the central bank remains focused on whether inflation will continue to cool toward its 2% target.
The same day, Nvidia is set to report Q2 earnings with $91 billion revenue expected, according to analyst consensus cited in recent reports. Wall Street is anticipating a 97% year-over-year increase in revenue to nearly $92 billion, along with earnings per share around $1.01 — a 49% year-over-year gain, according to analysis from Motley Fool and other financial outlets. The results carry outsized importance for the broader market, given Nvidia’s dominance in artificial intelligence chips and data center infrastructure.
Inflation data has become increasingly market-sensitive as investors weigh the likelihood of future Federal Reserve policy shifts. Core PCE inflation stood at 3.4% year-over-year in June 2026, down slightly from 3.5% in May but still elevated above the Fed’s 2% objective. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to hold rates steady through the remainder of 2026, though the trajectory of inflation will inform any potential moves next year.
The convergence of these two events — one reflecting consumer inflation pressures and the other showcasing the profitability of the AI boom — creates a critical inflection point for equities. A stronger-than-expected PCE reading could reinforce concerns about sticky inflation and limit the Fed’s room to cut rates, while Nvidia’s results will signal whether the artificial intelligence investment cycle remains robust or faces headwinds. Markets have been closely monitoring both developments, with traders entering the week seeking clarity on the sustainability of recent equity gains.
Sources
- BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) — PCE inflation release scheduled for August 26, 2026
- Kiplinger — Core PCE month-over-month and year-over-year forecasts for August 2026
- Motley Fool — Nvidia Q2 earnings expectations, analyst consensus on revenue and EPS
- Yahoo Finance / Intellectia — Nvidia revenue guidance of $91–92 billion and 97% year-over-year growth
- Reuters — Fed interest rate hold expectations and economist survey on 2026 policy
- WSJ — Core PCE inflation data for June 2026 at 3.3% year-over-year
- Federal Reserve — Fed funds rate held at 3.5%–3.75% as of July 2026 meeting
