Social Security cost-of-living adjustment projections for 2027 have fallen to a range of 3.4% to 3.6%, down from earlier forecasts of 3.8% to 4.2%, as inflation cooled in July. The Senior Citizens League now estimates a 3.6% COLA, down from its July projection of 3.8%, while AARP estimates 3.5%, down from its prior 3.6% forecast, according to new government inflation data released Wednesday.
The downward revision reflects moderating price pressures across the economy. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 3.4% over the past 12 months as of July, down from 3.5% in June, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Social Security’s COLA is calculated using third-quarter inflation data—the average of July, August, and September CPI-W figures compared year-over-year. Because two months of data remain, the official adjustment won’t be announced until October, after September’s inflation report is released. The final figure could shift again depending on how prices move over the next two months.
Even at the lower end of current projections, a 3.4% to 3.6% COLA would represent a meaningful increase for the nation’s 67 million Social Security beneficiaries. A 3.6% adjustment would raise the average retired worker’s monthly benefit by approximately $75, from roughly $2,071 to $2,146, according to the Senior Citizens League and AARP estimates.
Despite the recent decline, the projected 2027 COLA remains well above the long-term average of around 2.6%. Over the past decade, the COLA has averaged 3.1%, boosted by inflation spikes that drove adjustments of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. The 2026 COLA, which took effect in January, was set at 2.8%.
The declining COLA projections follow a pattern of steady downward revisions throughout 2026. In June, independent analyst Mary Johnson had estimated a 4.7% COLA; by July that fell to 3.7%; and with the latest July CPI data, she now projects 3.4%. “A moderation in inflation has resulted in bringing down my estimate from higher peaks earlier this year,” Johnson said in a statement to CNBC.
Seniors have expressed frustration with how COLA adjustments lag actual price increases they experience. A June survey by the Senior Citizens League found that 89% of seniors said the 2026 COLA of 2.8% left their benefits short of inflation. Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton noted that “seniors don’t experience inflation as a percentage on a chart,” adding that it is “infuriating that seniors must wait for a COLA to catch up with prices that have already driven up their grocery bills, housing costs, healthcare expenses and insurance premiums.”
Sources
- CBS News — 2027 COLA projections and downward revisions from advocacy groups; inflation data and benefit impact calculations
- CNBC — COLA estimates, CPI-W data, analyst commentary from Mary Johnson, historical COLA figures
- Chase (J.P. Morgan Wealth Management) — COLA calculation methodology, third-quarter CPI-W comparison process, benefit examples
- Senior Citizens League — COLA projections and senior satisfaction survey data
- AARP — COLA estimates and projected benefit increases
