Thomas Kaplan, chairman of the Electrum Group and NovaGold Resources, says gold is headed 10 times higher to $30,000–$50,000 per ounce, calling the move “inevitable” in an interview with Kitco News published August 20. Gold traded near $4,515 an ounce that day, meaning a tenfold gain would place the precious metal around $45,000—inside the range Kaplan named.
“Seeing gold go up another tenfold from here, to me is not just likely, but inevitable,” Kaplan told Kitco. “I can see gold going to 30, 40, 50,000 dollars without a problem.” He did not attach a timeframe to the forecast.
Kaplan, who made his fortune in energy and precious metals, framed the recent pullback in gold prices as a correction within a longer bull market, not the start of a bear market. He drew a specific historical parallel: the 1987 stock market crash, when the Dow fell roughly 36% in eight weeks. “That was the best buying opportunity of the entire bull market,” he said. “You can’t see it on a long-term chart. The crash of 1987, it really did seem like the world was falling in upon itself, and yet when you look back over that chart, you can’t see it.”
The mining investor’s long-term gold price outlook is grounded in what he calls a “very long wave” in precious metals driven by global monetary forces. In February 2026, he told investors his long-term outlook for gold was in the “tens of thousands of dollars,” positioning the current forecast as an extension of a thesis he has held for years.
Kaplan’s track record lends weight to his contrarian timing. In 2007, months before the financial crisis, he sold his energy company Leor Energy to EnCana for $2.55 billion after deciding he no longer had conviction in oil markets and wanted out of cyclical assets. “I’d entered 2007 with a view that things were just simply too good, not dissimilar to the way things are right now in certain respects,” he said in the interview. “There was just too much bullishness in asset classes.”
His current gold position reflects decades of conviction in the metal as monetary insurance. Kaplan is chairman of NovaGold Resources, which is developing the Donlin project in Alaska—estimated to hold roughly 40 million ounces of gold. He is also chairman of Sunshine Silver Mining and Refining, which went public in June 2026 after he waited 33 years to own the Sunshine Mine.
Kaplan’s forecast sits well above consensus. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts gold to average $6,000 per ounce by the final quarter of 2026 and rise toward $6,300 by the end of 2027—bullish by historical standards, but a fraction of Kaplan’s long-term target. Goldman Sachs has targeted $5,400 for 2027, while Wells Fargo expects $6,100–$6,300 by the end of 2027.
On timing, Kaplan was candid about his uncertainty. When asked whether the current pullback represented a near-term bottom, he said: “Maybe it already is, maybe it needs to test again, I don’t know. It doesn’t matter, because in the long term, even in the medium term, gold and silver are going to multiply from where they are.”
Sources
- Kitco News — Thomas Kaplan’s forecast for gold reaching $30,000–$50,000, his “1987 moment” comparison, his 2007 energy sale, and his long-term precious metals thesis
- J.P. Morgan Global Research — Gold price forecasts of $6,000/oz by Q4 2026 and $6,300/oz by end of 2027
- Various analyst forecasts — Goldman Sachs $5,400 target for 2027; Wells Fargo $6,100–$6,300 by end of 2027
