Aisha Wahab narrowly leads Melissa Hernandez in California’s 14th Congressional District special election, holding 51 percent of the vote to Hernandez’s 49 percent with a lead of approximately 1,360 votes as of August 19, according to the latest available results. The election, held on August 18 to fill the seat vacated by Eric Swalwell, represents a dramatic tightening of a race that Wahab was expected to win decisively.
Swalwell resigned from Congress in April 2026 following allegations of sexual assault and misconduct. Wahab, a state senator from Hayward, and Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, advanced from a June primary where Wahab secured 43 percent of the vote compared to Hernandez’s 17 percent—a margin of more than 20 points.
The race unexpectedly narrowed in the runoff phase, driven in large part by a surge of outside spending targeting Wahab. AIPAC-affiliated super PACs and allied groups poured between $2.5 million and $5 million into the race opposing the progressive state senator, according to reporting from Politico and other outlets. In total, outside groups spent nearly $10 million in the race, with roughly $3.7 million supporting Hernandez or opposing Wahab, much of it from pro-Israel aligned donors.
Wahab attributed the race’s thin margins directly to the outside spending campaign. “Nearly $10 million in outside money and relentless smears made this race close,” she said in a statement, adding that her grassroots campaign was “beating the biggest spending operation of any House race in the country.” Wahab, a Muslim and Afghan American lawmaker, has alleged that AIPAC and other groups are targeting her due to prejudice and racism, though she rarely discusses Israel or Gaza policy publicly.
The outcome remains uncertain pending additional vote counts. Alameda County is not expected to release its next batch of results until Friday, with the final outcome potentially unclear until late the following week. However, Wahab declared victory on election night, telling KQED, “I’m very proud to get started. We believe that the numbers and the lead will just only grow.” Political analysts note that late-arriving mail-in ballots in California typically skew toward progressive voters, which could solidify Wahab’s narrow advantage.
The race also exposed rifts within California’s Democratic establishment. Wahab had refused requests from veteran lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Caucus Chair Peter Aguilar, to support a plan for a temporary Democratic caretaker to fill the seat during the special election process. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, chair of California’s House delegation, released a video accusing Wahab of rejecting the caretaker plan by saying, “What’s in it for me?”—a move that underscored tensions between progressive and establishment wings of the party.
Even a narrow victory in the special election would set the stage for a rematch in November’s general election, where Wahab and Hernandez are expected to face off again for a full two-year term. Hernandez’s campaign expressed confidence in her prospects for the fall, with a spokesperson stating that the map and electorate would be more favorable to her in the November contest.
Sources
- Politico — Wahab’s race tightening, outside spending dynamics, and Democratic establishment tensions
- NBC Bay Area — Vote totals and percentages as of August 19
- Los Angeles Times — Initial results and vote counts with 62 percent of votes tallied
- Washington Post — AIPAC spending and super PAC involvement
- 19th News — Wahab’s background and AIPAC spending figures
- KQED — Wahab’s election night statement and race characterization
