Nebius stock rose more than 3% on Tuesday ahead of its second-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday, August 12, buoyed by Goldman Sachs analyst Alexander Duval’s reiteration of a Buy rating and $286 price target, implying about 49% upside from current levels.
Duval sees strong demand for Nebius’ AI compute capacity, with tight supply helping the company maintain firm pricing power. According to his analysis, Nebius sold out its Q1 capacity despite charging higher prices, signaling robust demand across the AI infrastructure market. The analyst also expects Nebius to move toward a more asset-light model, allowing the company to grow without a proportional rise in capital spending.
Nebius is targeting $7 billion to $9 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by the end of 2026, up sharply from its full-year guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion for 2026. The company’s momentum comes after Q1 2026 revenue jumped 684% year-over-year to $399 million, and Wall Street expects Q2 revenue to reach approximately $570 million to $585 million, up more than 400% year-over-year. The company also signed a more than $1 billion multi-year AI cloud deal with Reflection AI, demonstrating continued large-customer commitment.
However, not all analysts are bullish. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria, a 5-star analyst, downgraded Nebius to Neutral and cut his price target from $250 to $175, implying about 10% downside from current levels. Luria visited Nebius’ Vineland, New Jersey data center facility, which is expected to provide as much as half of this year’s capacity increase, expanding from about 50MW to 328MW. After seeing the construction progress firsthand, Luria expressed doubt that Nebius can complete that expansion on schedule by year-end.
The distinction between connected capacity and revenue-producing infrastructure matters. Nebius could classify recently delivered Bloom Energy units as connected capacity before year-end, yet Luria worries the facility might still be unable to generate enough December revenue to support management’s targeted $7 billion to $9 billion run rate. He warned that “the narrative on Nebius could change” if construction delays weaken investor confidence in management’s ability to convert contracted capacity into revenue-producing infrastructure.
Luria also flagged the company’s negative margins as a longer-term concern. Nebius continues operating with negative margins, leaving investors dependent on significant future profitability improvements to justify the current valuation. He said it “requires a leap of faith to believe that it can reach adequate margins to provide positive returns.”
Wall Street holds a mixed view overall. Seven analysts recommend buying Nebius stock, while four are staying on the sidelines, producing a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The average analyst price target of $241 implies about 26% upside from current levels. The company plans to spend $20 billion to $25 billion on capital projects, underscoring the heavy investment required to scale its AI cloud infrastructure.
Sources
- TipRanks — Goldman Sachs analyst view, Q2 earnings expectations, Nebius revenue guidance, and D.A. Davidson analyst downgrade
- Nebius Investor Hub — Q2 earnings release date and timing
- BusinessWire — Q1 2026 financial results and revenue growth
