About eight in 10 independent voters say U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has used too much force in its nationwide operations, according to a poll released today by YouGov, marking a striking shift in how this crucial swing group views a central part of the Trump administration’s immigration agenda.
The poll, commissioned by the Vera Institute of Justice and conducted in late July among 1,000 voters, found a dramatic increase from 2025, when polls showed independents more divided on ICE enforcement. By February 2026, independents had already shifted significantly: 71% believed ICE had gone too far, up from 59% the previous June, according to a Marist poll.
The timing of the latest poll is significant. It was conducted shortly after ICE agents fatally shot two men in separate traffic stops in Maine and Texas within six days in July. The shootings have intensified scrutiny of the agency’s tactics and reignited public backlash that had temporarily subsided.
This erosion of support among independents poses a political problem for Republicans heading into the November midterms. Independent voters have become increasingly vital to election outcomes, with a record 45% of Americans now identifying as independents, according to Gallup. Several competitive midterm races are expected to be decided by this group.
“This is a big vulnerability,” said Matthew Grossman, a political scientist and professor of public policy at Michigan State University. “An issue that [Republicans] had in previous elections is now working to their disadvantage.”
The shift reflects a broader pattern of declining confidence in ICE across the electorate. While Republicans remain largely supportive—less than two in 10 say ICE has used excessive force—Democrats and independents have turned sharply against the agency. Nine in 10 Democrats say ICE has gone too far.
Immigration enforcement was a centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 campaign and a major factor in his victory. Polls conducted before the 2024 election showed Trump leading on immigration and border security by roughly 20 points. But months of high-profile raids, lawsuits alleging harassment and racial profiling, and multiple deadly shootings have eroded that advantage.
In January 2026, public outrage spiked following fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good by immigration agents in Minnesota. That incident prompted surges of federal agents into cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Minneapolis, fueling mass protests. The July shootings in Maine and Texas—involving Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston and Johan Duran Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine—renewed the controversy.
In response to the July incidents, immigration authorities moved to a lower profile, halting most high-profile raids. The Trump administration ordered ICE to suspend most vehicle stops and moved to expand body camera requirements. Republicans began emphasizing targeted enforcement against criminals rather than mass deportations.
However, the damage to independent voter support appears substantial. An AP-NORC poll conducted after the shootings found that only 18% of independents approved of ICE’s actions, down significantly from earlier in the year. Overall, just 30% of adults approved of ICE’s work.
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst, noted the strategic shift this represents. “Some of the messaging that Republicans thought was effective in 2024 on immigration may not be anymore because the public mood has changed,” he said.
The Department of Homeland Security has pushed back on the negative polling, citing June 2026 data showing 80% of Americans support deporting immigrants in the country illegally who have committed crimes. The agency has urged cities to cooperate with ICE and praised immigration officers’ work.
Still, with the midterms less than three months away, the erosion of independent voter support for ICE enforcement represents a significant challenge for Republican candidates seeking to appeal to the center. Several competitive races could hinge on how these swing voters ultimately decide.
Sources
- USA Today — August 9, 2026 reporting on YouGov poll showing 80% of independent voters say ICE used too much force, citing shift from 2025 polling
- Vera Institute of Justice — commissioned YouGov poll conducted in late July 2026
- Marist Poll — February 2026 poll showing 71% of independents believe ICE went too far, up from 59% in June 2025
- Gallup — January 2026 finding that 45% of Americans identify as political independents, a record high
- AP-NORC — post-shooting poll finding 18% of independents approve of ICE actions
- NPR/PBS News — coverage of fatal ICE shootings in Maine and Texas in July 2026
- Michigan State University — Matthew Grossman quote on political implications
