Democratic state representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 47-45% in a new Texas Senate poll, marking the third consecutive survey showing the Democrat ahead in the race for the U.S. Senate seat that will be decided November 3, 2026.
The poll, released by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center on August 4, surveyed 1,200 likely voters between July 27 and July 30 with a margin of error of 2.83 percentage points. Talarico’s two-point lead falls within that margin, keeping the race tight as the general election approaches.
The survey shows Talarico winning decisively among women (55-38%), Latino voters (57-38%), and Black voters (79-12%), while Paxton leads among white voters 53-39%. Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute who coauthored the survey, attributed Talarico’s strength to a combination of factors: Paxton underperforming among Republicans at 85% support, while Talarico overperforms among Democrats at 97% support. “You put those two factors together, combined with Donald Trump being under water among Texas voters, and that could potentially create the perfect storm that could allow Democrats to do something they haven’t done since 1994, and that is win a statewide election in Texas,” Jones said.
The race has become one of the nation’s most expensive Senate contests. According to recent fundraising reports, Talarico has raised $30 million compared to Paxton’s $9 million in the last quarter. Talarico is using that financial advantage aggressively, with ads targeting Paxton on corruption allegations. Paxton’s campaign has expressed confidence, with adviser Nick Maddux stating: “The only poll that matters is November 3.”
The two candidates have yet to finalize their debate schedule. Talarico has accepted three proposed televised debates set for September 22 in the Rio Grande Valley (NBC/Telemundo/Hearst), October 6 in Dallas (WFAA/TEGNA), and October 13 (KXAN/Nexstar), but Paxton’s campaign has not confirmed attendance at any of the proposed dates. Paxton agreed in principle to debate in July, though his campaign said it was still working out terms as of late July.
The Democratic nominee faces a historic challenge. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, when Ann Richards lost her reelection bid for governor to George W. Bush. If Talarico succeeds in November, he would break a 32-year Republican streak in statewide contests. The Texas Senate race has drawn national attention as one of the few competitive Senate seats that could shift the chamber’s balance of power.
Sources
- Houston Public Media — Texas Southern University poll showing Talarico leading Paxton 47-45%, demographic breakdowns, and analysis from Mark Jones at Rice University
- Axios — Latest poll results, fundraising figures ($30 million for Talarico, $9 million for Paxton), and Republican strategy assessment
- USA Today — Debate dates proposed by Talarico and Paxton’s response status
- Fox News — Prior poll showing Talarico up 51-48 and Trump approval among Texas voters
- Texas Tribune — Texas Public Opinion Research poll showing Talarico up 45-40 and historical context on Democratic statewide wins
