Democrats in Idaho, Nebraska, and Montana are pursuing a new Senate strategy: withdrawing their own nominees in rural red states to empower independent candidates they believe have stronger chances against Republican incumbents. Idaho Democrat David Roth announced his exit from the race on July 28, just days after Nebraska’s Cindy Burbank withdrew on July 17, both stepping aside to clear paths for independent challengers.
Facing slim prospects in deeply Republican states, Democrats are embarking on a calculated tactical shift to expand the Senate map. “Facing slim prospects in rural red states, Democrats are embarking on a new tactic to expand the Senate map: encouraging doomed nominees to drop out of the race, in order to empower independent candidates to take on Republicans one on one,” according to NBC News analysis published July 30.
In Idaho, Roth’s exit clears the path for independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator and Army veteran, to face Republican Sen. Jim Risch one-on-one. Roth had faced sustained pressure from prominent Democrats, including former U.S. Rep. Larry LaRocco and Ada County Democrats, to drop out and rally behind Achilles. However, Roth initially resisted, telling the Idaho Capital Sun in July that he and Achilles disagreed on critical issues like single-payer healthcare and government housing investments. Ultimately, Roth stated he would focus on “helping Democrats win up and down the ballot and in communities across Idaho.”
In Nebraska, the strategy proved more contentious. Cindy Burbank, who won the Democratic primary, withdrew on July 17 to support independent Dan Osborn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. However, William Forbes, who lost the primary to Burbank, sued to force Nebraska Democrats to find a replacement candidate, complicating the party’s independent-candidate strategy. Osborn had previously run as an independent against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, when Democrats did not hold a primary.
The rationale behind the shift is clear: Idaho, Nebraska, and Montana are among the nation’s most Republican states where traditional Democratic nominees face nearly insurmountable odds. Idaho has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1974, and Nebraska has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2006. By withdrawing their nominees, Democrats hope independent candidates—who may appeal to disaffected Republicans and moderate voters—can mount more competitive challenges. “In places where a combination of Democratic voters and independents is not enough to win, Democrats need a way to get disaffected Republicans,” elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales told Roll Call on July 29. “But even if some Republicans are disgruntled, voting for a Democrat is still a bridge too far.”
Not all Democratic nominees have complied with the strategy. In Montana, Democrat Alani Bankhead has resisted pressure to drop out before an August 10 deadline, despite backing from groups supporting independent Seth Bodnar. Bankhead won the Democratic primary with 43.7% of the vote and has stated she will remain in the race, telling Montana Television Network that “over 48,000 people voted for me; zero people voted for [Bodnar].” In South Dakota, Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion, backed by former President Joe Biden, has also refused to exit, telling reporters he is “not in this to play political games.”
The strategy reflects broader efforts to rebuild Democratic strength in red states. Former Sen. Joe Manchin launched the Independent Leadership Council on July 24 to recruit and support independent candidates across Congress. Manchin, who left the Senate in 2024 as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party, said the council aims to elect candidates who can break partisan gridlock. His daughter, Heather Manchin, co-leads the effort.
The independent-candidate strategy carries risks for Democrats. Party leaders cannot guarantee that independent senators will vote with Democrats on key legislation or procedural votes like leadership elections. “There are some risks with not supporting a traditional nominee who would vote the party line,” Gonzales noted. “But Democrats would rather take their chances supporting an independent who might be helpful some of the time over a Republican who won’t be with [them] on anything.”
Sources
- NBC News — Democratic Senate strategy of encouraging nominees to drop out in rural red states to empower independent candidates
- Idaho Capital Sun — David Roth’s withdrawal from the Idaho Senate race and pressure from Democrats to support Todd Achilles
- Roll Call — Analysis of the independent-candidate strategy across Idaho, Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota; quotes from elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales
- Nebraska Examiner — Cindy Burbank’s withdrawal and William Forbes’s lawsuit
- CNN — Joe Manchin’s launch of the Independent Leadership Council on July 24, 2026
