Democrats hold a narrow but consistent edge over Republicans in the race for control of Congress this November, though polling experts warn that the outcome remains uncertain less than four months before the 2026 midterm elections.
According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 6-12, Democrats lead Republicans 43% to 37% on the generic congressional ballot, with 20% unsure or backing another candidate. Trump's approval rating stands at 34%, with 64% disapproving, the survey found.
Multiple forecasting models underscore Democratic advantages. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast from July 15 predicts a Democratic House with 226 seats to Republicans’ 209, giving Democrats a 61% probability of winning the chamber. The same model shows a 57% chance Republicans retain the Senate in a 50-50 split. Geoffrey Skelley, DDHQ’s chief elections analyst, cautioned that “if one party is doing maybe a little better than expected, or as well as expected in one chamber, it could end up reverberating in the other chamber.”
Brookings Institution senior fellow William Galston noted that historically, the president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections—this has occurred in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections since 1938. The two exceptions, in 2002 and 1998, reflected unusual circumstances: President George W. Bush’s approval stood at 63% on Election Day 2002 following the September 11 attacks, while President Bill Clinton enjoyed 66% approval when Republicans failed to remove him from office in 1998. Trump’s current approval, well below 50%, presents a steeper climb.
Galston wrote that a president’s job approval has strong predictive power for midterm outcomes, and noted that “every time the president’s net job approval was negative a year before a midterm election, the president’s party lost ground in the House.” Trump’s approval averaged 45.8% approval and 50.9% disapproval across recent surveys, a net of minus-5.1 percentage points.
The Pew data reveals that Trump himself looms large as a campaign issue. Among registered voters, 42% say they view their vote as a vote against Trump, while 22% view it as a vote for him; 35% say Trump is not much of a factor. Democrats overwhelmingly—81%—consider their vote a vote against Trump, while half of Republicans say Trump is not much of a factor in their decision.
Still, Republican chances are not negligible. Polymarket’s prediction market, which has historically outperformed polls, assigns a 43.5% probability to a split outcome where Republicans hold the Senate while Democrats win the House. A “Republican sweep” controlling both chambers carries a 41.5% probability on the same platform. DDHQ’s model shows a 40% chance that Democrats could win full control of Congress, while Republicans have a 36% chance of retaining full control.
Trump has intensified his 2026 midterm involvement with campaign rallies, seeking to bolster Republican candidates even as his approval ratings weigh on the party. GOP faces a voter enthusiasm gap ahead of 2026 midterms, according to recent analysis, with Democratic voters reporting higher engagement: 70% of Democrats say “it really matters” which party controls Congress, compared to 60% of Republicans.
Skelley cautioned that the race remains fluid. “Democrats’ lead, with a 4-point lead on a generic ballot, is enough for them to win the House. But if it gets smaller than that, you could end up in a situation where it’s where the House is more of a true coin flip,” he said. Economic conditions, unforeseen events, and shifts in voter enthusiasm between now and November could reshape the landscape significantly.
Sources
- Pew Research Center — generic ballot data, Trump approval rating, and voter sentiment on Trump as a campaign factor, from July 23, 2026 report
- Decision Desk HQ — House and Senate forecast probabilities, seat projections, and analyst commentary from July 15, 2026
- Brookings Institution — historical midterm analysis, Trump approval context, and presidential approval’s predictive power for House outcomes
- Polymarket — prediction market probabilities for various midterm outcomes as of July 27, 2026
