Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the 2028 Democratic primary field in New Hampshire with 22% support among likely primary voters, according to a University of New Hampshire poll released Wednesday, marking the first time the New York congresswoman has topped early primary surveys in the state.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails by a single point at 21%, while Arizona Senator Mark Kelly drew 9% support, California Governor Gavin Newsom 8%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 6%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to President Trump in 2024, registered just 5% of the vote.
The shift marks a notable change in the race’s early dynamics. In prior University of New Hampshire surveys from February and October 2025, Buttigieg led the field while Ocasio-Cortez trailed in second place. The congresswoman has not formally declared a 2028 candidacy but told Politico in July that when asked about running for president, “I can’t say that I’ve ruled it out.”
Ocasio-Cortez draws much of her support from self-described socialists and progressives, according to the UNH Survey Center’s analysis. Buttigieg’s backing, by contrast, spreads more evenly across progressives, liberals, and moderates. The poll surveyed 596 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire between July 15 and July 20, 2026.
New Hampshire is hoping to again host the first Democratic presidential primary of the 2028 election cycle. The state has long held a prominent position in the presidential nomination process, and early polling there typically signals candidate momentum heading into the broader primary season.
Ocasio-Cortez has spent recent months campaigning alongside fellow progressives ahead of the November midterms, including endorsing Michigan Senate Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Political observers have noted growing momentum within Democratic Socialist circles around a potential Ocasio-Cortez presidential run, with the Democratic Socialists of America debating endorsement strategy as speculation about her 2028 intentions intensifies.
Sources
- University of New Hampshire Survey Center — 2028 New Hampshire Democratic primary poll showing Ocasio-Cortez at 22%, Buttigieg at 21%, and other candidates’ support levels
- Boston Globe — Confirmation of AOC’s lead, historical polling comparisons, and statement from Politico about her 2028 intentions
- Fox News — Verification of poll results and candidate standings
