President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to just 36%, with 61% disapproving, according to a CNN poll of polls as of Friday, July 19—a level that historically triggers midterm wave elections. Yet Democrats are struggling to convert this pervasive disapproval into sufficient support for their House and Senate candidates, creating what analysts call the 2026 approval gap.
The challenge is stark when compared to Trump’s first term. In 2018, when Trump’s approval sat at 45% with 54% disapproving, 90% of voters who disapproved of his performance backed Democrats for the House. Today, despite Trump’s approval being twice as negative—20 points underwater rather than 10—House Democrats are winning only 69% to 85% of disapprovers, depending on the poll, according to analysis by CNN’s Ronald Brownstein.
Democratic pollster Evan Roth Smith laid out the paradox plainly: “Democrats have failed to convert a tenth of the American electorate that has turned against Donald Trump in a way they never have before.” Smith notes that while Trump’s net approval is about 20 points negative, the Democratic lead in generic ballot tests for the House is considerably smaller than the party’s actual advantage of about 8.5 points in the 2018 national House popular vote.
The impact shows in specific battleground races. A Quinnipiac survey in Pennsylvania found that since February, Trump’s net approval rating deteriorated from minus 15 points to minus 19. Yet the Democratic lead in the House vote remained stuck at only 6 points, with 93% of Trump approvers intending to vote Republican while just 84% of disapprovers planned to vote for Democrats. In several key Senate races—Ohio, Iowa, and Texas—Republican candidates are running ahead of Trump’s approval rating in a manner that only Senator Susan Collins of Maine achieved during his first term.
GOP consultant Jesse Hunt cited a fundamental challenge facing Democrats: “They have a brand problem. They have failed to adequately present an alternative.” GOP strategist Brad Todd identified the holdouts as concentrated in two groups: college-educated White men and non-college White women. Both groups harbor substantial doubts about Democrats despite their complaints about Trump’s performance.
A Washington Post-Ipsos poll released on July 18 found voters favoring Democrats by only three points among registered voters overall, though the margin grows significantly among those most motivated to vote. This enthusiasm advantage offers Democrats a potential path forward, but it hinges on converting skeptics who disapprove of Trump yet remain unconvinced about Democratic alternatives.
Democratic strategists point to the 2022 Senate elections as a model. That year, Democratic senators including Mark Kelly of Arizona, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire won in states where most voters disapproved of President Biden’s performance—by effectively portraying their Trump-allied opponents as extreme. Dan Sena, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the party’s 2018 sweep, emphasized that candidates must introduce themselves and establish independent identities distinct from the national Democratic Party to convert Trump disapprovers. “This is why you campaign,” Sena said. “It really took the candidates introducing themselves and establishing themselves as an independent voice” that opened the ability to win those voters.
The risk for Democrats is clear: if they fail to close the gap between Trump’s poor approval and their own competitive standing, they could underperform expectations. For Republicans, the danger is subtler. While GOP candidates are running surprisingly well among Trump-disenchanted voters today, history suggests many of them could either return to Trump or simply sit out the election by November, potentially erasing the party’s current competitive edge.
Sources
- CNN — Analysis of 2026 midterm polling showing the approval gap, comparison to 2018 election, House and Senate race data, and commentary from Democratic and Republican strategists
- The Washington Post — July 18, 2026 poll showing Democrats’ three-point lead among registered voters and enthusiasm advantage
