Social Security beneficiaries are tracking a 3.6% to 3.8% benefit increase for 2027 after June’s cooler-than-expected inflation report, potentially one of the largest cost-of-living adjustments in recent years.
The Senior Citizens League forecasts a 3.8% increase, unchanged from its prior month’s projection, while the AARP estimates 3.6%, according to CBS News. A 3.6% to 3.8% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75 to $79, raising it to roughly $2,149 at the upper end of the range, based on the January 2026 average of $2,071 per month reported by the Social Security Administration.
The shift in estimates follows June’s inflation data, which came in much cooler than economists had expected, rising 3.5% on an annual basis, lower than the forecast of 3.9%, according to CBS News. The report reflected a sharp cooling from May, when the Consumer Price Index hit a three-year high of 4.2%.
The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using inflation data from July through September, comparing the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for those three months to the same period the prior year, according to the SSA and Congress.gov. This means the final 2027 COLA could differ from current estimates based on inflation readings released over the coming months.
The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, after the September CPI report is released, according to the AARP and MSN. The announcement will reveal the final adjustment that will take effect with benefits payable starting in January 2027.
For context, the 2026 COLA was 2.8%, up from 2.5% in 2025, according to the Social Security Administration. Despite annual COLA increases, many seniors say they’re falling behind financially. Research from the Senior Citizens League shows Social Security benefits have lost nearly 14% of their buying power over the past decade because the inflation measure used to calculate the COLA doesn’t fully reflect expenses that disproportionately affect older Americans, such as healthcare.
A quote from Alex Moore, the statistician for the Senior Citizens League, captured the uncertainty ahead: “Inflation is pretty unstable right now,” Moore told CBS News in an email.
Sources
- CBS News — 2027 COLA projection of 3.6% to 3.8%, June inflation data, average benefit amounts, and quote from Senior Citizens League statistician
- The Senior Citizens League — 3.8% COLA projection and research on Social Security buying power loss
- AARP — 3.6% COLA projection and October 14 announcement date
- Social Security Administration — CPI-W calculation method, 2026 COLA of 2.8%, January 2026 average benefit of $2,071
- Congress.gov — COLA calculation methodology using CPI-W third-quarter data
- MSN — October 14, 2026 announcement date
