The economic calendar is packed this week with inflation data, Federal Reserve testimony, and retail sales figures that will shape expectations for monetary policy and consumer spending. The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 released today, July 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET showed inflation falling to 3.5% year-over-year, below the 4.2% reading from May and marking progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered his first monetary policy testimony before Congress today, appearing before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. ET. He will return to Capitol Hill tomorrow, July 15, for a second day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. ET, presenting the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report.
Warsh has signaled in recent public appearances that he will not offer forward guidance on future rate decisions. In his first FOMC meeting as chair in June 2026, he kept rates unchanged, and Fed minutes released last week showed heightened concern among policymakers about inflation running at a three-year high. The Fed’s June projections anticipated rates would rise a quarter of a percentage point by the end of 2026.
Rounding out the week’s major economic data, retail sales for June are scheduled to release on July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month gain, compared to May’s stronger 0.9% increase. The National Retail Federation projects that retail sales in 2026 will grow 4.4% over 2025 to reach $5.6 trillion, though recent months have shown variable momentum as consumers balance spending amid inflation concerns.
The confluence of today’s softer CPI reading, Warsh’s testimony on the Fed’s policy stance, and the upcoming retail data will provide markets with a clearer picture of economic momentum heading into the second half of the year. The inflation decline, if sustained, could reduce pressure on the Fed to raise rates aggressively, while retail sales data will offer insight into whether consumer demand remains resilient despite higher price levels.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI release schedule and June 2026 inflation data
- Federal Reserve — Warsh testimony dates and monetary policy calendar for July 2026
- Senate Banking Committee — July 15 hearing schedule for Warsh’s semiannual monetary policy report
- Reuters — Warsh’s first testimony on monetary policy, scheduled for July 14
- Trading Economics — June retail sales forecast and month-over-month expectations
- National Retail Federation — 2026 annual retail sales growth forecast of 4.4%
- The New York Times — Fed minutes showing heightened inflation concerns at Warsh’s first meeting
- Al Jazeera — Fed’s June 2026 projections for rate increases
