Citi Research analyst Asiya Merchant lifted Apple’s price target to $365 from $315, a $50 increase that reflects confidence in the tech giant’s market position as its stock rallies 15% from June lows. The upgrade, announced on Monday, maintains a Buy rating and implies roughly 15% upside from early-trading levels.
Apple shares have surged since bottoming on June 25, when the company announced price increases on MacBooks, iPads, and other devices to offset surging memory chip costs. That single-day decline wiped out the stock’s year-to-date gains, but the selloff proved temporary. The rally from the June 25 low has added nearly $600 billion in market value, according to Yahoo Finance, as investors reassess the company’s fundamentals.
Merchant’s thesis rests on Apple’s ability to maintain pricing power and market share despite headwinds in the broader smartphone and PC markets. She noted that smartphone and PC markets are likely to decline by mid-to-high teens in 2026, yet Apple continues to outperform. The analyst expects Apple to reach record smartphone market share of around 25% in 2026, up two percentage points, according to industry reports cited in her research. This resilience stems from Apple’s ultra-premium positioning and highly integrated supply chain, which insulate it from the memory crisis affecting competitors.
The September launch of the iPhone 18 represents a key catalyst, Merchant wrote, signaling an important inflection point for investor sentiment. She also believes Apple’s selective price increases—which applied to Macs and iPads in late June—will help offset margin pressures. Merchant expects future iPhone launches to feature higher-end models where demand remains more resilient, and she anticipates price hikes there as well.
Beyond hardware, Merchant sees upside from Apple’s enhanced Siri assistant, set for release this fall and powered by Google’s Gemini AI. While the underlying Apple Intelligence technology is unlikely to drive a significant upgrade cycle near term, the analyst expects these improvements to increase user engagement and support long-term growth in Apple’s high-margin services revenue.
The upgrade also comes as Apple faces a new legal battle. Last week, the company sued OpenAI, alleging the ChatGPT maker stole intellectual property at multiple levels to develop its own hardware. OpenAI has denied the allegations, but the dispute marks a dramatic reversal for the two companies, which partnered just two years ago to integrate ChatGPT into the iPhone’s operating system.
Sources
- Barron’s — Asiya Merchant’s price target increase to $365, iPhone 18 catalyst, margin expectations, and Apple Intelligence context
- Yahoo Finance — Apple’s 15% rally from June 25 lows and $600 billion market value gain
- Seeking Alpha — Citi’s upgrade announcement and analyst commentary on market share and pricing
- Investing.com — Market share gains and analyst view on smartphone and PC market declines
- 9to5Mac — Apple’s expected record smartphone market share of 25% in 2026
