Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) has gained 11.8% year-to-date through July 2026, closely mirroring the broad strength of the U.S. equity market as earnings growth accelerates across sectors and artificial intelligence investment drives productivity gains.
VTI’s performance aligns closely with the wider market because the fund holds roughly 3,600 stocks spanning the entire U.S. market—the S&P 500’s 500 largest companies plus thousands of mid-cap and small-cap names. The S&P 500 itself has returned approximately 11% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced about 16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained roughly 9.5%, according to market data as of mid-July.
The fund’s 0.03% expense ratio, among the lowest in the industry, makes VTI a popular choice for passive investors seeking broad market exposure without the drag of high fees. With a 1.16% dividend yield, the ETF provides both capital appreciation and income for long-term holders.
Earnings growth is the primary engine behind 2026’s market strength. Wall Street analysts now project S&P 500 earnings growth of 25% for the full calendar year, up from less than 16% at the start of the year, according to analyst forecasts. The broadening of gains beyond mega-cap technology stocks reflects a shift in market leadership, as companies across industrials, energy, utilities, and infrastructure sectors benefit from AI infrastructure spending and operational improvements driven by artificial intelligence adoption.
Goldman Sachs Research raised its S&P 500 forecast for year-end 2026 to 8,000, up from 7,600 in May, projecting a 6% return from that point and raising earnings-per-share forecasts to $340 for 2026, representing 24% annual growth. This earnings momentum has supported the broad market rally that VTI captures.
The fund’s performance in 2026 extends a longer-term track record: VTI has delivered a 10.30% compound annual return over the past 30 years, with a 15.78% standard deviation, according to Lazy Portfolio ETF data through June 2026. Compared to the S&P 500-focused VOO, which tracks only the largest 500 companies, VTI offers slightly broader diversification at an identical fee, making it a one-fund solution for investors seeking total U.S. market exposure.
Sources
- PortfoliosLab — VTI 11.8% year-to-date return as of July 2026
- Vanguard — VTI 11.84% YTD returns (NAV) as of July 10, 2026
- Chase Bank — S&P 500 and Nasdaq year-to-date performance and Dow performance through June 2026
- Slickcharts — S&P 500 11.36% YTD return and Dow Jones 9.52% YTD return as of July 10, 2026
- Goldman Sachs Research — S&P 500 year-end 2026 forecast and earnings-per-share projections
- Lazy Portfolio ETF — VTI 30-year compound annual return and standard deviation through June 2026
- Yahoo Finance — VTI dividend yield and S&P 500 earnings growth estimates
